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> A ‘triple dip’ La Niña — lasting three years in a row — has happened only twice since 1950. Doesn't seem all that rare, then.
by yosito 4y ago
> A ‘triple dip’ La Niña — lasting three years in a row — has happened only twice since 1950.
Doesn't seem all that rare, then.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- aaron695 4y ago
- smt88 4y ago2-3 times in a lifetime is rare by some reasonable definition
- lrhegeba 4y ago2 x 3 years would be 6 years. 1950 to 2022 are 72 years. So 6 years of 72 years would be 8,3 percent. YMMV if this can be considered rare
- bruce343434 4y agoThe "event" is that it takes/repeats 3 years in a row. So 2 in 72.
- nlitened 4y ago2 in 24 three-year slots, so 8.3% again
- bruce343434 4y agoWhy would you count in 3 year slots? You're saying that it could happen on 1950, but not 1951, and not 1952, but again on 1953? What if there was La Niña on 1952, 1953 and 1954? Your method does not account for that. Natural events and climate do not adhere to someone's made up "mod 3" date statistics.
- nlitened 4y agoLet’s try going from contrary. You said 2 in 72. Imagine a situation when it’s 72 in 72, which means, 72 years straight, each year had a three-year streak. This doesn’t make any sense. Surely the maximum amount of three-year groups in 72 years is far fewer than 72.
- bruce343434 4y agoHmm, good point. I suppose you could count `0,1,1,1,1,0` as 2 occurences of 3 consecutive 1s, but we'd probably call it a single quadruple niña event instead, so I see where you're coming from now.