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> I expect my cars to last 300k - 500k KM. Most non-japanese cars turn into crap-boxes post 100k miles. Assuming 10k miles/yr, that's expecting a 20-35 yr life

by screye 4y ago

> I expect my cars to last 300k - 500k KM. Most non-japanese cars turn into crap-boxes post 100k miles. Assuming 10k miles/yr, that's expecting a 20-35 yr lifespan for a car. That is incredibly impractical. > Consumer Reports estimates the average EV battery pack's lifespan to be at around 200,000 miles This means that an owner's experience will begin to substantially deteriorate at the 100k+ mile mark. The whole electric cars as a solution for climate change thing is smoke-and-mirrors. The real problem is cars as a whole. If climate change is indeed an existential threat, then funding for public transport, bikes and dense neighborhoods must go up. Electric cars being heavier, lead to (mass squared) faster road wear and road costs. Their quietness, greater acceleration, greater momentum and worse braking distances will only lead to increased accidents. Their range obsession means that EV hatchbacks are simply infeasible, and the move towards trucks and giant cars is proceeding undeterred. I would have loved to see a more tiny-car / ebike driven electric revolution. Hell, we already had electrified transportation : it was called streetcars and trains. I do not particularly like the Ford F150 lightning and Model X version of electric car revolution that we're seeing today. Electric cars are great on paper, but their 2nd order effects will cause more damage than good. That being said, we might see some great moonshot 3rd order effects such as sufficient battery storage technology to counter grid instability due to renewables or the complete removal of domestic gas pipelines in public infrastructure. But, I think the harmful 2nd order effects are more likely to cause issues than the good brought in by electric vehicles and possible moonshot events.

ncmncm 4y ago
There are a lot of second-order effects. It is hard to predict all of them, or how large the impact of each will be. In particular, harder work than you probably did. Grid-scale storage will be built out after there is enough renewable generation capacity to charge it from. (Charging storage from NG would be... silly.) In the meantime, any capital available for that should be directed to building out the renewable generation capacity. By the time we need grid storage, it will be radically cheaper than today, same as putting up PV panels is radically cheaper than just a few years ago.
spiderxxxx 4y ago
> Most non-japanese cars turn into crap-boxes post 100k miles. Citation needed. >This means that an owner's experience will begin to substantially deteriorate at the 100k+ mile mark. So no different than an ICE, supposedly. However, where the engine might need to be replaced at 100k miles for an ICE, the motor of an electric car is expected to go to at least a million miles before needing replacement. >Electric cars being heavier, lead to (mass squared) faster road wear and road costs. Heavier than what exactly? An average SUV weighs more than an average BEV. >Their quietness, greater acceleration, greater momentum and worse braking distances will only lead to increased accidents. Citation needed. Not everyone floors it all the time just because they can, and with regenerative braking, more people are probably going to be driving slower and coasting to a stop instead of the 'floor it and slam it' of ICE, but we're both just making stuff up at this point. >Their range obsession means that EV hatchbacks are simply infeasible Whose range obsession exactly? many people already own BEV and or hybrids, and they're fine with the range. They're already "feasible". >I do not particularly like the Ford F150 lightning and Model X version of electric car revolution that we're seeing today. Me either, but they're better than those 10/20mpg or less vehicles of the past, it would be nice if people didn't have to haul or tow things, but life is what it is. >2nd order effects will cause more damage than good. again, Citation needed. re: "3rd order effects" https://arpa-e.energy.gov/ https://arpa-e.energy.gov/

by screye 4y ago

ncmncm 4y ago

There are a lot of second-order effects. It is hard to predict all of them, or how large the impact of each will be. In particular, harder work than you probably did. Grid-scale storage will be built out after there is enough renewable generation capacity to charge it from. (Charging storage from NG would be... silly.) In the meantime, any capital available for that should be directed to building out the renewable generation capacity. By the time we need grid storage, it will be radically cheaper than today, same as putting up PV panels is radically cheaper than just a few years ago.

spiderxxxx 4y ago

> Most non-japanese cars turn into crap-boxes post 100k miles. Citation needed. >This means that an owner's experience will begin to substantially deteriorate at the 100k+ mile mark. So no different than an ICE, supposedly. However, where the engine might need to be replaced at 100k miles for an ICE, the motor of an electric car is expected to go to at least a million miles before needing replacement. >Electric cars being heavier, lead to (mass squared) faster road wear and road costs. Heavier than what exactly? An average SUV weighs more than an average BEV. >Their quietness, greater acceleration, greater momentum and worse braking distances will only lead to increased accidents. Citation needed. Not everyone floors it all the time just because they can, and with regenerative braking, more people are probably going to be driving slower and coasting to a stop instead of the 'floor it and slam it' of ICE, but we're both just making stuff up at this point. >Their range obsession means that EV hatchbacks are simply infeasible Whose range obsession exactly? many people already own BEV and or hybrids, and they're fine with the range. They're already "feasible". >I do not particularly like the Ford F150 lightning and Model X version of electric car revolution that we're seeing today. Me either, but they're better than those 10/20mpg or less vehicles of the past, it would be nice if people didn't have to haul or tow things, but life is what it is. >2nd order effects will cause more damage than good. again, Citation needed. re: "3rd order effects" https://arpa-e.energy.gov/ https://arpa-e.energy.gov/