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Russia responded with an invasion because an EU state on their border would be like Mexico being an ally of China on the border of the US. Not saying Russian ac

Russia responded with an invasion because an EU state on their border would be like Mexico being an ally of China on the border of the US. Not saying Russian actions in the war haven't been despicable but if this happened to the US they would invade too. I think the most likely outcome of this war is Ukraine gets split into 2 buffer states, one as a client to Russia and the other as a client to the EU/US. US can't afford to spend the hundreds of billions it would take for Ukraine to win (1000's of tanks, artillery pieces, IFVs, etc) and Putin can't back down now or he'll lose face and be toppled from leadership.

spamizbad 4y ago
I'm not sure if you've been paying attention to the current political situation in Mexico but AMLO has no problem strengthening ties to various countries that "threaten" US interests. And he's free to do so! Mexico is a sovereign country and is allowed to build diplomatic bridges to any nation it chooses. It would be completely inappropriate for the US try an annex Baja California or something in retaliation. Just imagine if the international community took a firmer line on the US during GWOT - half a million lives could've been saved. Edit: Was the US justified in fomenting death squads Latin America because those countries embraced socialism against the wishes of the United States? No? Then why is Russia entitled to a full-scale invasion over Ukraine's western aspirations?
jonnybgood 4y ago
There are already EU and NATO member states that border Russia and haven't been an issue for Russia. Russia/Putin in all likelihood really invaded because they believe Ukraine is ran by Nazis.
- ceeplusplus 4y ago
  You don't really think Putin believes that? Pretty sure that's just Russian propaganda for their domestic audience to justify the invasion. The real reason is preventing a EU ally on their border and gaining access to the gas fields in the Black Sea.
  - Animats 4y ago
    "You don't really think Putin believes that?" He seems to. Putin's clear goal is "Make the Russian Empire Great Again". He's been grumbling since the fall of the USSR that, for the first time in centuries, Russia is a second-rate, "or even a third-rate" power. He wants to turn that around. His role model is Peter the Great. His model of world power is the 19th century, when the British Empire, the Imperial German Empire, the Austria-Hungarian Empire, the Russian Empire, and France had multiple medium-sized wars over land. This is a guy who was personally hammered by the fall of the USSR. The USSR had huge national security organizations and most of them were laid off. Putin himself was driving a cab for a while around 1990. There's a mindset amongst the former national security tough guys that they are supposed to be in charge. Now they are again. The strong rule; the weak cower. Such is the way of the world. Post-USSR capitalism was a disaster for Russia. People starved. The population dropped. That produced demand for a "strong leader", a long-standing theme in Russia. Weak Russian leaders have been disasters. (Kerensky, Gorbachev, etc.) Now, Russia again has a strong leader who bows to no one. Putin is popular. He can't afford to lose a war, though. Russian leaders who lose wars do not live long. He wouldn't survive to retire to a golf course in a warm climate. This is hugely oversimplified, and someone who knows more Russian history could do much better.
    - pm90 4y ago
      What you said is all true, but the Nazi thing is almost certainly propaganda. Putin wants to restore the USSR and his justification for annexing Ukraine has been to question the existence of a separate Ukrainian Culture and State. You only have to go over the stuff he’s talked about since the last invasion; most of it is the reunification nostalgia, very little about defeating “Nazis”.
      - dragonwriter 4y ago
        > Putin wants to restore the USSR The Russian Empire is probably more accurate (he has repeatedly specifically referenced Peter the Great); the USSR he has portrayed as simply a poorly managed intermediate stage of historical Russia.
- 13415 4y ago
  No, this is not about Nazis. Putin simply always considered Ukraine to be part of Russia's legitimate "sphere of influence" and tried to steer it into becoming a pro-Russian vassal state. It's part of his incorrect views as a hobby historian. As a psychopath, or at least sociopath, he calculated that the 2014 invasion would not meet any strong resistance and was right. So he calculated in 2022 that grabbing more territory would work, too, and was wrong. The problem with dictators like Putin is that they always overestimate their own judgments and nobody tells them when they're wrong. You could be the smartest guy of the world, if you run a whole country, are insanely rich, and constantly surround yourself with Yes-men, then your perception of reality will fail at some point. It's inevitable.

spamizbad 4y ago

I'm not sure if you've been paying attention to the current political situation in Mexico but AMLO has no problem strengthening ties to various countries that "threaten" US interests. And he's free to do so! Mexico is a sovereign country and is allowed to build diplomatic bridges to any nation it chooses. It would be completely inappropriate for the US try an annex Baja California or something in retaliation. Just imagine if the international community took a firmer line on the US during GWOT - half a million lives could've been saved. Edit: Was the US justified in fomenting death squads Latin America because those countries embraced socialism against the wishes of the United States? No? Then why is Russia entitled to a full-scale invasion over Ukraine's western aspirations?

jonnybgood 4y ago

There are already EU and NATO member states that border Russia and haven't been an issue for Russia. Russia/Putin in all likelihood really invaded because they believe Ukraine is ran by Nazis.

ceeplusplus 4y ago
You don't really think Putin believes that? Pretty sure that's just Russian propaganda for their domestic audience to justify the invasion. The real reason is preventing a EU ally on their border and gaining access to the gas fields in the Black Sea.
- Animats 4y ago
  "You don't really think Putin believes that?" He seems to. Putin's clear goal is "Make the Russian Empire Great Again". He's been grumbling since the fall of the USSR that, for the first time in centuries, Russia is a second-rate, "or even a third-rate" power. He wants to turn that around. His role model is Peter the Great. His model of world power is the 19th century, when the British Empire, the Imperial German Empire, the Austria-Hungarian Empire, the Russian Empire, and France had multiple medium-sized wars over land. This is a guy who was personally hammered by the fall of the USSR. The USSR had huge national security organizations and most of them were laid off. Putin himself was driving a cab for a while around 1990. There's a mindset amongst the former national security tough guys that they are supposed to be in charge. Now they are again. The strong rule; the weak cower. Such is the way of the world. Post-USSR capitalism was a disaster for Russia. People starved. The population dropped. That produced demand for a "strong leader", a long-standing theme in Russia. Weak Russian leaders have been disasters. (Kerensky, Gorbachev, etc.) Now, Russia again has a strong leader who bows to no one. Putin is popular. He can't afford to lose a war, though. Russian leaders who lose wars do not live long. He wouldn't survive to retire to a golf course in a warm climate. This is hugely oversimplified, and someone who knows more Russian history could do much better.
  - pm90 4y ago
    What you said is all true, but the Nazi thing is almost certainly propaganda. Putin wants to restore the USSR and his justification for annexing Ukraine has been to question the existence of a separate Ukrainian Culture and State. You only have to go over the stuff he’s talked about since the last invasion; most of it is the reunification nostalgia, very little about defeating “Nazis”.
    - dragonwriter 4y ago
      > Putin wants to restore the USSR The Russian Empire is probably more accurate (he has repeatedly specifically referenced Peter the Great); the USSR he has portrayed as simply a poorly managed intermediate stage of historical Russia.
13415 4y ago
No, this is not about Nazis. Putin simply always considered Ukraine to be part of Russia's legitimate "sphere of influence" and tried to steer it into becoming a pro-Russian vassal state. It's part of his incorrect views as a hobby historian. As a psychopath, or at least sociopath, he calculated that the 2014 invasion would not meet any strong resistance and was right. So he calculated in 2022 that grabbing more territory would work, too, and was wrong. The problem with dictators like Putin is that they always overestimate their own judgments and nobody tells them when they're wrong. You could be the smartest guy of the world, if you run a whole country, are insanely rich, and constantly surround yourself with Yes-men, then your perception of reality will fail at some point. It's inevitable.