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> I could watch a movie made for me We're a long, long way from this. Stringing words/images together into a coherent sequence is arguably the easy bit of crea

> I could watch a movie made for me We're a long, long way from this. Stringing words/images together into a coherent sequence is arguably the easy bit of creating novels/films, and computers still lag a long way behind humans in this regard. Structuring a narrative is a harder, subtler step. Our most advanced ML solutions are improving rapidly, but often struggle with coherence over a single paragraph; they're not going to be doing satisfying foreshadowing and emotional beats for a while.

natly 4y ago
We're probably a long way away from narrative, but dall-e for video is probably only a year or two away from now (they're probably training the model as we speak).
- htrp 4y ago
  https://video-diffusion.github.io/ https://video-diffusion.github.io/ Google's got you!
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
jb_s 4y ago
For many movies, sure. I'm pretty sure the Marvel franchise is shat out by an algorithm.
- orbital-decay 4y ago
  You jest, but it really is the case. When your movie has a goddamn board of directors, you can be 100% sure it will be A/B tested until it transmutes the surrounding air into gold.
axg11 4y ago
> We're a long, long way from this. We’re probably 18 months away from this. We’re probably less than 5 years away from being able to do this on local hardware. AI/ML is advancing faster than most people realise.
fumblebee 4y ago
Maybe. But I think a lot of folks have a short term memory; it was not so long ago that Word2Vec and AlexNet were SOTA. Remember when the thought of a human besting a world-class player at Go was impossible? Me too. We've come ludicrously far since then. That progress doesn't guarantee that innovation in the space will continue at its current pace, but it sure does feel like it's possible.
thatwasunusual 4y ago
> Structuring a narrative is a harder, subtler step. You can say that about many movies/series made entirely by humans today. :)
importantbrian 4y ago
I actually wouldn't be surprised if the technology catches up to this faster than we realize. I think the actual barrier to large scale adoption of it will be financial and social incentives. A big reason all the major studios are moving to big franchises is that the real money is in licensing the merch. The movies and TV shows are really just there to sell more merch. Maybe this will work when we all have high quality 3d printers at our desks and we can just print the merch they sell us. The other big barrier is social. A lot of what people watch, they watch because it was recommended to them by friends or colleagues, and they want to talk about what other people are talking about. I'm sure that there will be many people who will get really into watching custom movies and discussing those movies with chatbots, but I bet most people will still want to socialize and discuss the movies they watch with other humans. FOMO is an underestimated driver of media consumption.

natly 4y ago

We're probably a long way away from narrative, but dall-e for video is probably only a year or two away from now (they're probably training the model as we speak).

htrp 4y ago
https://video-diffusion.github.io/ https://video-diffusion.github.io/ Google's got you!

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

jb_s 4y ago

For many movies, sure. I'm pretty sure the Marvel franchise is shat out by an algorithm.

orbital-decay 4y ago
You jest, but it really is the case. When your movie has a goddamn board of directors, you can be 100% sure it will be A/B tested until it transmutes the surrounding air into gold.

axg11 4y ago

> We're a long, long way from this. We’re probably 18 months away from this. We’re probably less than 5 years away from being able to do this on local hardware. AI/ML is advancing faster than most people realise.

fumblebee 4y ago

Maybe. But I think a lot of folks have a short term memory; it was not so long ago that Word2Vec and AlexNet were SOTA. Remember when the thought of a human besting a world-class player at Go was impossible? Me too. We've come ludicrously far since then. That progress doesn't guarantee that innovation in the space will continue at its current pace, but it sure does feel like it's possible.

thatwasunusual 4y ago

> Structuring a narrative is a harder, subtler step. You can say that about many movies/series made entirely by humans today. :)

importantbrian 4y ago

I actually wouldn't be surprised if the technology catches up to this faster than we realize. I think the actual barrier to large scale adoption of it will be financial and social incentives. A big reason all the major studios are moving to big franchises is that the real money is in licensing the merch. The movies and TV shows are really just there to sell more merch. Maybe this will work when we all have high quality 3d printers at our desks and we can just print the merch they sell us. The other big barrier is social. A lot of what people watch, they watch because it was recommended to them by friends or colleagues, and they want to talk about what other people are talking about. I'm sure that there will be many people who will get really into watching custom movies and discussing those movies with chatbots, but I bet most people will still want to socialize and discuss the movies they watch with other humans. FOMO is an underestimated driver of media consumption.