10 ms·

Is there a reason that the Arab Spring isn't a good example?

• _-david-_ 4y ago
  There are a few reasons. 1. The culture is different. It may work, but I feel like Europeans are a bit more passive. As long as things aren't too bad they will let the status quo remain. 2. The Middle East / Africa had a lot of weapons that Europe doesn't. In some areas they had CIA training as well (albeit a few decades ago in some area). 3. Several of the Arab Spring required the West to get involved to aid in the overthrow. It is possible the CIA or others had to help in the others. There is no guarantee the West would be willing to get involved to oust Putin especially since he has nukes. Seeing how the West is mostly providing monetary aid and surveillance in Ukraine and not direct military support we could possibly see the same in Russia. 4. I think the Russian surveillance state is better than the Arab Spring countries. Might not make a huge impact, but it could stop things before it got started. I am curious, since I don't keep up with the Middle East a huge amount, how many of the countries are in a better state now then they were 10 years ago? Didn't ISIS take over part of Syria? Having a successful revolution doesn't mean anything if a worse government gets in power. Perhaps I'm just being cynical. I just don't think it is quite comparable.
  • jhugo 4y ago
    > Seeing how the West is mostly providing monetary aid and surveillance in Ukraine and not direct military support we could possibly see the same in Russia. Indeed, I'm sure Western support would be forthcoming if a movement gained traction — but the effective surveillance state and history of severe suppression make that exceedingly unlikely. The risk is enormous and the likelihood of success tiny.