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In the presence of outliers the median is a better predictor of underlying long-teem trends. Subtracting the median gives the delta from zero-median. The delta
by glitchc 4y ago
In the presence of outliers the median is a better predictor of underlying long-teem trends. Subtracting the median gives the delta from zero-median. The delta would be non-zero if there is a long term effect. Here the delta is zero in a number of cases.
- airza 4y agoWhat is the concept of an outlier when you’re trying to measure if the earth is hotter than it used to be over a fixed length of time? If your hottest temperature 500 degrees, then sure, you may have an outlier that needs exclusion. But if all your coldest days are the same and your hottest days are 10 degrees warmer, your median might not move much. But that doesn’t make it look good for life on earth.
- CrazyStat 4y ago> In the presence of outliers the median is a better predictor of underlying long-teem trends. Not if outliers are REALLY FUCKING IMPORTANT, like, say, extreme weather events.
- thehappypm 4y agoOutliers are likely to drag the averages down, not up. The only really substantial global outlier events are volcanic eruptions, which cause a net cooling. Everything else (hurricanes and the like) is just heat moving around
- CrazyStat 4y agoWe're looking at individual airport temperature records here, not global means.
- thehappypm 4y agoSo? A big volcanic eruption could cool many airports.
- CrazyStat 4y agoOnce we recognize that we're talking about local rather than global there are many local outliers that increase temperatures, countering your argument that volcanic eruptions are the only global outliers.
- glitchc 4y agoExtreme weather events are a symptom of global warming, not a cause.