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> Nation states resorting to seizing each other’s ships (see Greece-Iran issue recently). The US Navy is a major player here, having recently seized Venezuelan

> Nation states resorting to seizing each other’s ships (see Greece-Iran issue recently). The US Navy is a major player here, having recently seized Venezuelan and Iranian tankers on the basis of violating sanctions. Only in retaliation did Iran begin seizing boats. This undermines the thesis that the US Navy is somehow protecting the stability of global trade. They're actively destabilizing to advance Washington's hegemonic interests. > The thing about Zeihan’s arguments is that you can’t really argue against demographics. You can absolutely argue against this. It's called automation. Needing millions of young healthy bodies to push machines around is increasingly outdated. A highly technical population with "bad demographics" will easily outperform a 20th century population with "good demographics" in the 21st century. Not to mention high population growth (required for "good demographics") is increasingly unsustainable due to natural resource limitations. Zeihan is frankly a crock. He makes pretty maps and bold claims, but his evidence-based analysis is incredibly shallow. His MO is selling books: geopolitics as entertainment, not providing useful analysis. You are much better served by listening to experienced realists like John Mearsheimer or Michael Hudson, rather than Zeihan's pop-geopol junk.

spaceman_2020 4y ago
> You can absolutely argue against this. It's called automation. You're viewing it from a myopic production-focused viewpoint. Whereas the problem is our consumption-led economic order and its reliant on adding an ever increasing number of consumers. Compared to young people: A) Machines do not consume goods and trinkets. Western economies are based on consumption, not production. B) Machines do not pay taxes, making it harder and harder for the state to pay for the welfare of ageing populations. C) Automation simply doesn't work for service-focused work. Otherwise there wouldn't be record number of job openings and labor shortages in the US right now.
- pphysch 4y ago
  > Western economies are based on consumption, not production. Hence their present downfall. > Machines do not pay taxes, making it harder and harder for the state to pay for the welfare of ageing populations. Taxes are a relic of the long-gone physical money era. Vulgar taxation is a legacy technology that provides more waste than utility in the 21st century. > Automation simply doesn't work for service-focused work. Yes it does, increasingly over time. I just ordered my lunch through a virtual cafeteria cashier that was literally a human until a month ago. Someone still prepared it by hand by putting ~10 spoonfuls of different ingredients into a tortilla, but that is already being automated in more advanced societies.
  - TapWaterBandit 4y ago
    > Taxes are a relic of the long-gone physical money era. Vulgar taxation is a legacy technology that provides more waste than utility in the 21st century. It isn't often I see really novel ideas on hacker news, but this is an interesting take. Will need to think about it more but definitely interesting to think about the best means of providing public goods etc and if the system we have does this.
    - emilyst 4y ago
      It sounds like you're responding to a cryptocurrency talking point. How likely do you think it is that taxation (as in, "nothing is certain except death and taxes") will disappear at some point?
    - pphysch 4y ago
      Taxation in the fiat CB/MMT era stops being a means to fill public coffers and becomes primarily a means to artificially suppress demand. You tax someone not to raise your funds, but to decrease their spending power. If you need to fill the public coffers, just ask the CB! You can then use taxation to mitigate the inflationary pressure of doing that. But generally taxation becomes a bandaid for poor economics, and institutions like the IRS are obscenely arcane and bloated. They should be eradicated and replaced by a much simpler and more automated digital accounting system. No, this doesn't have anything to do with the virtual beanie babies known as cryptocurrency.
      - colinmhayes 4y ago
        You are describing mmt which has been thoroughly rebuffed by mainstream economists. https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/modern-monetary-theory/ https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/modern-monetary-theory/
        pphysch 4y ago
        Oh no, not the Mainstream Economists. Meanwhile, the USG is busy increasing their deficit and not taxing megacorps while trying to tackle inflation.

spaceman_2020 4y ago

> You can absolutely argue against this. It's called automation. You're viewing it from a myopic production-focused viewpoint. Whereas the problem is our consumption-led economic order and its reliant on adding an ever increasing number of consumers. Compared to young people: A) Machines do not consume goods and trinkets. Western economies are based on consumption, not production. B) Machines do not pay taxes, making it harder and harder for the state to pay for the welfare of ageing populations. C) Automation simply doesn't work for service-focused work. Otherwise there wouldn't be record number of job openings and labor shortages in the US right now.

pphysch 4y ago
> Western economies are based on consumption, not production. Hence their present downfall. > Machines do not pay taxes, making it harder and harder for the state to pay for the welfare of ageing populations. Taxes are a relic of the long-gone physical money era. Vulgar taxation is a legacy technology that provides more waste than utility in the 21st century. > Automation simply doesn't work for service-focused work. Yes it does, increasingly over time. I just ordered my lunch through a virtual cafeteria cashier that was literally a human until a month ago. Someone still prepared it by hand by putting ~10 spoonfuls of different ingredients into a tortilla, but that is already being automated in more advanced societies.
- TapWaterBandit 4y ago
  > Taxes are a relic of the long-gone physical money era. Vulgar taxation is a legacy technology that provides more waste than utility in the 21st century. It isn't often I see really novel ideas on hacker news, but this is an interesting take. Will need to think about it more but definitely interesting to think about the best means of providing public goods etc and if the system we have does this.
  - emilyst 4y ago
    It sounds like you're responding to a cryptocurrency talking point. How likely do you think it is that taxation (as in, "nothing is certain except death and taxes") will disappear at some point?
  - pphysch 4y ago
    Taxation in the fiat CB/MMT era stops being a means to fill public coffers and becomes primarily a means to artificially suppress demand. You tax someone not to raise your funds, but to decrease their spending power. If you need to fill the public coffers, just ask the CB! You can then use taxation to mitigate the inflationary pressure of doing that. But generally taxation becomes a bandaid for poor economics, and institutions like the IRS are obscenely arcane and bloated. They should be eradicated and replaced by a much simpler and more automated digital accounting system. No, this doesn't have anything to do with the virtual beanie babies known as cryptocurrency.
    - colinmhayes 4y ago
      You are describing mmt which has been thoroughly rebuffed by mainstream economists. https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/modern-monetary-theory/ https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/modern-monetary-theory/
      - pphysch 4y ago
        Oh no, not the Mainstream Economists. Meanwhile, the USG is busy increasing their deficit and not taxing megacorps while trying to tackle inflation.