5 ms·

Here’s one for you: He predicted the invasion of Ukraine back in this video from 2017 (actually earlier, but this was the easiest source for me to cite): https

by MR4D 4y ago

Here’s one for you: He predicted the invasion of Ukraine back in this video from 2017 (actually earlier, but this was the easiest source for me to cite): https://youtu.be/rkuhWA9GdCo https://youtu.be/rkuhWA9GdCo The whole video is pretty short, but he mentions Ukraine about 2 1/2 minutes in.

kapp_in_life 4y ago
Russia had already invaded Ukraine in 2014. This is similar to claiming the US would invade some N+1 Middle eastern country. He makes a lot of claims and some of them happen to be right.
colinmhayes 4y ago
I predicted the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 after no one gave a shit about the Crimean invasion. Plenty of other people did too, it wasn't even a difficult prediction to make, Putin has been very clear about his Ukrainian ambition for a long time. Remember Trump's first impeachment? It was literally about withholding military aid to Ukraine, all of the state department officials were bewildered because they knew about the impending invasion.
- andi999 4y ago
  If it was so clear, then tell me, why did putin wait for so long.
  - colinmhayes 4y ago
    Many reasons, waiting for people to forget about the crimean invasion, waiting for people to be distracted, waiting for an especially cold winter that would cause europe more harm if they instituted sanctions, waiting for his health to deteriorate.
  - tomp 4y ago
    Because Trump threatened to strike back. Putin was afraid of Trump, but he knows that Biden has no spine. https://nypost.com/2022/02/22/trump-talks-threatening-putin-mocking-merkel-at-mar-a-lago/ https://nypost.com/2022/02/22/trump-talks-threatening-putin-... > “If you move against Ukraine while I’m president,” Trump is said to have told the Russian leader, “I will hit Moscow.” > Putin reportedly scoffed, “No way,” leading Trump to say, “All those beautiful golden turrets will be blown up.”
    - hattmall 4y ago
      People don't want to believe this because they hate Trump. But there's no denying he was unpredictable and that's not something you want from the most powerful man in the world if you are trying to destabilize the world. There's no way Putin invades with Trump in power.
    - Paradigma11 4y ago
      Trump didnt even protect his kurd allies from the turks when all he had to do was do nothing.
      - andi999 4y ago
        You cannot compare these two situation.
  - mcphage 4y ago
    Because he was waiting for Trump to pull the US out of NATO. Which Putin wanted him to do, and Trump talked endlessly about doing, but kept waiting and waiting. Trump knows it's good to have a powerful man need you to do something, it's not so good to have already done it. Of course, you can only make them wait for so long, which was why Trump made it clear he would do that at the start of his second term.
  - DrSiemer 4y ago
    Because Russia was stocking up on foreign valuta for exactly the current scenario. Close advisors to Zelensky have been aware of the incoming invasion since at least 2017. But they could not act, because sounding the alarm would cause mass evacuations. This would have clogged their infrastructure, which would prevent their army from being able to act quickly and basically lose them the war before it had even begun. It is not a very strong example of a prediction. At most it shows he is well informed.
- tomp 4y ago
  > Remember Trump's first impeachment? It was literally about withholding military aid to Ukraine Don't fall for left-wing propaganda. The impeachment was all about politics, the "withholding military aid" was just a convenient excuse. The actual fact is, Trump provided way more military aid to Ukraine than e.g. Obama. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/16/politics/us-ukraine-aid-fact-check/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/16/politics/us-ukraine-aid-f... (ignore the title, focus on the text:) > While the Trump administration was the first willing to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, the Obama administration did provide defense and military equipment.
  - colinmhayes 4y ago
    I'm not commenting on whether he deserved to be impeached, only that we have proof that the state department thought it was very important to provide Ukraine with military aid. Either way though, the crimean invasion happen 6 years into Obama's term. Not surprising that Trump gave them more aid.
notahacker 4y ago
To be fair to Zeihan, he apparently got the year for the Ukraine invasion everyone knew Putin ideally wanted but didn't think he'd dare. But he also predicted the economic collapse of China in the last decade, and Japan being involved in a major crisis or possibly a regional conflict due to its [already established] ageing population issues, and those predictions which definitely didn't happen are arguably much more important to his core ideas about demographic trends.
csomar 4y ago
I don't think he "predicted" the Russian invasion. I think everyone denied it. Just remember a few weeks before this invasion, everyone was not believing the USA alarms about an imminent invasion; including high-ranking leaders in supposedly powerful EU countries. Just shows how blindness can affect anyone.

by MR4D 4y ago

kapp_in_life 4y ago

Russia had already invaded Ukraine in 2014. This is similar to claiming the US would invade some N+1 Middle eastern country. He makes a lot of claims and some of them happen to be right.

colinmhayes 4y ago

I predicted the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 after no one gave a shit about the Crimean invasion. Plenty of other people did too, it wasn't even a difficult prediction to make, Putin has been very clear about his Ukrainian ambition for a long time. Remember Trump's first impeachment? It was literally about withholding military aid to Ukraine, all of the state department officials were bewildered because they knew about the impending invasion.

andi999 4y ago
If it was so clear, then tell me, why did putin wait for so long.
- colinmhayes 4y ago
  Many reasons, waiting for people to forget about the crimean invasion, waiting for people to be distracted, waiting for an especially cold winter that would cause europe more harm if they instituted sanctions, waiting for his health to deteriorate.
- tomp 4y ago
  Because Trump threatened to strike back. Putin was afraid of Trump, but he knows that Biden has no spine. https://nypost.com/2022/02/22/trump-talks-threatening-putin-mocking-merkel-at-mar-a-lago/ https://nypost.com/2022/02/22/trump-talks-threatening-putin-... > “If you move against Ukraine while I’m president,” Trump is said to have told the Russian leader, “I will hit Moscow.” > Putin reportedly scoffed, “No way,” leading Trump to say, “All those beautiful golden turrets will be blown up.”
  - hattmall 4y ago
    People don't want to believe this because they hate Trump. But there's no denying he was unpredictable and that's not something you want from the most powerful man in the world if you are trying to destabilize the world. There's no way Putin invades with Trump in power.
  - Paradigma11 4y ago
    Trump didnt even protect his kurd allies from the turks when all he had to do was do nothing.
    - andi999 4y ago
      You cannot compare these two situation.
- mcphage 4y ago
  Because he was waiting for Trump to pull the US out of NATO. Which Putin wanted him to do, and Trump talked endlessly about doing, but kept waiting and waiting. Trump knows it's good to have a powerful man need you to do something, it's not so good to have already done it. Of course, you can only make them wait for so long, which was why Trump made it clear he would do that at the start of his second term.
- DrSiemer 4y ago
  Because Russia was stocking up on foreign valuta for exactly the current scenario. Close advisors to Zelensky have been aware of the incoming invasion since at least 2017. But they could not act, because sounding the alarm would cause mass evacuations. This would have clogged their infrastructure, which would prevent their army from being able to act quickly and basically lose them the war before it had even begun. It is not a very strong example of a prediction. At most it shows he is well informed.
tomp 4y ago
> Remember Trump's first impeachment? It was literally about withholding military aid to Ukraine Don't fall for left-wing propaganda. The impeachment was all about politics, the "withholding military aid" was just a convenient excuse. The actual fact is, Trump provided way more military aid to Ukraine than e.g. Obama. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/16/politics/us-ukraine-aid-fact-check/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/16/politics/us-ukraine-aid-f... (ignore the title, focus on the text:) > While the Trump administration was the first willing to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, the Obama administration did provide defense and military equipment.
- colinmhayes 4y ago
  I'm not commenting on whether he deserved to be impeached, only that we have proof that the state department thought it was very important to provide Ukraine with military aid. Either way though, the crimean invasion happen 6 years into Obama's term. Not surprising that Trump gave them more aid.

notahacker 4y ago

To be fair to Zeihan, he apparently got the year for the Ukraine invasion everyone knew Putin ideally wanted but didn't think he'd dare. But he also predicted the economic collapse of China in the last decade, and Japan being involved in a major crisis or possibly a regional conflict due to its [already established] ageing population issues, and those predictions which definitely didn't happen are arguably much more important to his core ideas about demographic trends.

csomar 4y ago

I don't think he "predicted" the Russian invasion. I think everyone denied it. Just remember a few weeks before this invasion, everyone was not believing the USA alarms about an imminent invasion; including high-ranking leaders in supposedly powerful EU countries. Just shows how blindness can affect anyone.