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Furthermore, after the one-time pain, assuming they survive the pain, the sanctioned nation arguably ends up stronger because they're forced to develop in-house

Furthermore, after the one-time pain, assuming they survive the pain, the sanctioned nation arguably ends up stronger because they're forced to develop in-house versions of things. I'm just waiting for China to decide they're strong enough to cut the US off. Assuming we survive the pain, that'll be an interesting day.

DennisP 4y ago
China imports over 80% of their oil and food/ag inputs, so it'll be a while.
scottyah 4y ago
The industry developed during sanctions is a lot like those created during times of highly protectionist policies though. Once those walls come down, they have to compete with the rest of the world that has been innovating a lot faster. They’ll need a lot of supplemental income or all these bubble-spawned companies will die off. I think it’d be smarter to NOT try to develop everything in-house if you’re a smaller country with many imports.
- bombcar 4y ago
  Some of the most important "industries" for a country to survive are not very exciting or competitive - farming and energy being the two main ones.
vkou 4y ago
> Furthermore, after the one-time pain, assuming they survive the pain, the sanctioned nation arguably ends up stronger because they're forced to develop in-house versions of things. Which is why North Korea is now a world-leader in... Oh, right. They are an impoverished Chinese vassal, that can barely even keep its own people fed. I don't understand where all this 'Sanctions do nothing' zeitgeist is coming from. Is six-dollar a gallon gas the cause for a complete reversal on this sort of thing? If so, I'd daresay that sanctions seem pretty effective - given that their targets have to deal with a lot worse than expensive gas. Russia's on track for an 8% reduction in GDP this year. I can't speak for everyone, but between the two options, I think I'd prefer the six-dollar gas.
- bombcar 4y ago
  List the countries that are 1. not tiny little jokes of a country and 2. not currently already under heavy sanctions that the US can sanction without harming themselves.
  - vkou 4y ago
    1. North Korea is a country of 26 million people. That's bigger than most of the countries in Europe, and is half the population of its nearest neighbour, South Korea. If the 20-million-to-40-million person range is a joke of a country, well, I've got to say, the overwhelming majority of the world's countries are that size or smaller. The reason it's a joke of a country is precisely because of sanctions (and equivalents thereof). It didn't becomes stronger due to being cut off from foreign trade - unlike its sibling SEA nations, it failed to develop in large part because of it. 2. Without harming itself? Even one iota? There aren't any. Without harming itself disproportionately less than its harming the sanctioned country? Almost every country in the world. [1] Doubly so if it does so in lockstep with the EU. Of course sanctions harm the country invoking them. But like going to war against a weaker country, they harm the target a lot more than they harm the issuer. Cuba, Iraq and Iran were all impoverished, compared to their peers, by sanctions. Russia's well on it's way to eating a boot, economically. The US sure seems to be getting a lot of mileage out of this 'one-use' weapon... [1] China, Japan, Mexico, maaaaaaaaybe Canada, Taiwan, and a few countries in Europe are the only ones I can think of, where sanctions against them would hurt the US almost as much as it would hurt them.

DennisP 4y ago

China imports over 80% of their oil and food/ag inputs, so it'll be a while.

scottyah 4y ago

The industry developed during sanctions is a lot like those created during times of highly protectionist policies though. Once those walls come down, they have to compete with the rest of the world that has been innovating a lot faster. They’ll need a lot of supplemental income or all these bubble-spawned companies will die off. I think it’d be smarter to NOT try to develop everything in-house if you’re a smaller country with many imports.

bombcar 4y ago
Some of the most important "industries" for a country to survive are not very exciting or competitive - farming and energy being the two main ones.

vkou 4y ago

> Furthermore, after the one-time pain, assuming they survive the pain, the sanctioned nation arguably ends up stronger because they're forced to develop in-house versions of things. Which is why North Korea is now a world-leader in... Oh, right. They are an impoverished Chinese vassal, that can barely even keep its own people fed. I don't understand where all this 'Sanctions do nothing' zeitgeist is coming from. Is six-dollar a gallon gas the cause for a complete reversal on this sort of thing? If so, I'd daresay that sanctions seem pretty effective - given that their targets have to deal with a lot worse than expensive gas. Russia's on track for an 8% reduction in GDP this year. I can't speak for everyone, but between the two options, I think I'd prefer the six-dollar gas.

bombcar 4y ago
List the countries that are 1. not tiny little jokes of a country and 2. not currently already under heavy sanctions that the US can sanction without harming themselves.
- vkou 4y ago
  1. North Korea is a country of 26 million people. That's bigger than most of the countries in Europe, and is half the population of its nearest neighbour, South Korea. If the 20-million-to-40-million person range is a joke of a country, well, I've got to say, the overwhelming majority of the world's countries are that size or smaller. The reason it's a joke of a country is precisely because of sanctions (and equivalents thereof). It didn't becomes stronger due to being cut off from foreign trade - unlike its sibling SEA nations, it failed to develop in large part because of it. 2. Without harming itself? Even one iota? There aren't any. Without harming itself disproportionately less than its harming the sanctioned country? Almost every country in the world. [1] Doubly so if it does so in lockstep with the EU. Of course sanctions harm the country invoking them. But like going to war against a weaker country, they harm the target a lot more than they harm the issuer. Cuba, Iraq and Iran were all impoverished, compared to their peers, by sanctions. Russia's well on it's way to eating a boot, economically. The US sure seems to be getting a lot of mileage out of this 'one-use' weapon... [1] China, Japan, Mexico, maaaaaaaaybe Canada, Taiwan, and a few countries in Europe are the only ones I can think of, where sanctions against them would hurt the US almost as much as it would hurt them.