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But is it any good? That's the question. I don't doubt that they'll try something in the next 10 years, because now is the largest force they'll ever be able to

But is it any good? That's the question. I don't doubt that they'll try something in the next 10 years, because now is the largest force they'll ever be able to muster. One child policy screwed them.

ok_dad 4y ago
The success of the US Navy in the past was due to constant training and the empowerment of the officer corps at the junior ranks, and billions in cash thrown at tech and equipment. If China can afford to train well, has decent technology that’s reliable, and is flexible enough to allow power to disseminate the ranks, then I assume they are on the way to overtaking the US Navy in ability as the USN wanes due to lack of leadership and misplaced priorities.
- Animats 4y ago
  The US Navy has a lot of problems.[1] The big one is that they haven't fought a naval battle in decades. The US Army, Air Force, and USMC have been involved in too many wars in recent decades. For better or worse, they have a lot of people who have been at the sharp end. The Navy, not so much. It's beginning to look like warships will not be able to operate anywhere near a hostile shore in future. Truck-mounted systems are now a serious threat to warships. No more parking a helicopter carrier offshore and sending in the Marines. The new "littoral combat ships" are already being retired after only a few years in service. [1] https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-19-225t.pdf https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-19-225t.pdf
  - ok_dad 4y ago
    Yea, I was in the pre-com unit for the first LCS ship and it was an absolute shit-show at the builders constantly. The real problem isn't that the Navy can't fight battles, it's that they can't even perform basic navigation now without subs and ships hitting everything in sight! There is a "brain drain" in the USN where the best leaders (officers or otherwise) are forced out by the toxic culture and all that remains are the dickheads who are barely competent.
- ilamont 4y ago
  and is flexible enough to allow power to disseminate the ranks They're not. China (and other dictatorships) do not want an empowered office corps at the junior ranks, and the CCP is very careful to keep senior PLA generals on a short leash. The PLA Navy has not fired a shot in anger since the 1980s.
dirtyid 4y ago
> largest force they'll ever be able to muster PLA is still massively modernizing and expanding with barely ~2% of GDP. It doesn't take that many bodies to man modern military, even worst case combination of South Korea tier TFR (<1) and cold war ear spending (6%+) enables PRC to field a military multiple times larger than current size. This is without considering unmanned autonomous platforms that PRC defense industry is heavily focusing on. Need to properly conceptualize how fast/large PLA has grown last decade relative to how modest the amount of resources has actually been devoted.
- Animats 4y ago
  Expecting China to run out of people is a strange idea. In the last few decades, the PLA has shrunk, but has become much better equipped. The US military has a much worse manpower problem. 71% of US military age youth are ineligible for the US military - too fat, too dumb, or too criminal.[1] [1] https://www.cdc.gov/physicalactivity/downloads/unfit-to-serve.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/physicalactivity/downloads/unfit-to-serv...

But is it any good? That's the question. I don't doubt that they'll try something in the next 10 years, because now is the largest force they'll ever be able to muster. One child policy screwed them.

ok_dad 4y ago

The success of the US Navy in the past was due to constant training and the empowerment of the officer corps at the junior ranks, and billions in cash thrown at tech and equipment. If China can afford to train well, has decent technology that’s reliable, and is flexible enough to allow power to disseminate the ranks, then I assume they are on the way to overtaking the US Navy in ability as the USN wanes due to lack of leadership and misplaced priorities.

Animats 4y ago
The US Navy has a lot of problems.[1] The big one is that they haven't fought a naval battle in decades. The US Army, Air Force, and USMC have been involved in too many wars in recent decades. For better or worse, they have a lot of people who have been at the sharp end. The Navy, not so much. It's beginning to look like warships will not be able to operate anywhere near a hostile shore in future. Truck-mounted systems are now a serious threat to warships. No more parking a helicopter carrier offshore and sending in the Marines. The new "littoral combat ships" are already being retired after only a few years in service. [1] https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-19-225t.pdf https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-19-225t.pdf
- ok_dad 4y ago
  Yea, I was in the pre-com unit for the first LCS ship and it was an absolute shit-show at the builders constantly. The real problem isn't that the Navy can't fight battles, it's that they can't even perform basic navigation now without subs and ships hitting everything in sight! There is a "brain drain" in the USN where the best leaders (officers or otherwise) are forced out by the toxic culture and all that remains are the dickheads who are barely competent.
ilamont 4y ago
and is flexible enough to allow power to disseminate the ranks They're not. China (and other dictatorships) do not want an empowered office corps at the junior ranks, and the CCP is very careful to keep senior PLA generals on a short leash. The PLA Navy has not fired a shot in anger since the 1980s.

dirtyid 4y ago

> largest force they'll ever be able to muster PLA is still massively modernizing and expanding with barely ~2% of GDP. It doesn't take that many bodies to man modern military, even worst case combination of South Korea tier TFR (<1) and cold war ear spending (6%+) enables PRC to field a military multiple times larger than current size. This is without considering unmanned autonomous platforms that PRC defense industry is heavily focusing on. Need to properly conceptualize how fast/large PLA has grown last decade relative to how modest the amount of resources has actually been devoted.

Animats 4y ago
Expecting China to run out of people is a strange idea. In the last few decades, the PLA has shrunk, but has become much better equipped. The US military has a much worse manpower problem. 71% of US military age youth are ineligible for the US military - too fat, too dumb, or too criminal.[1] [1] https://www.cdc.gov/physicalactivity/downloads/unfit-to-serve.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/physicalactivity/downloads/unfit-to-serv...