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People like to point at Japan and its lack of growth pointing out to various degrees how awful that is, but if you’re actually Japanese, you’re pretty much fine

People like to point at Japan and its lack of growth pointing out to various degrees how awful that is, but if you’re actually Japanese, you’re pretty much fine for these decades of zeroish growth. Not to say Japan is an idyllic place free from problems, but the economics of a zero growth society has at least that example of a distinct lack of doom. If the rest of us experience it like that, it’s not really anything to worry about unless your worries revolve around earning money from capital.

lostcolony 4y ago
"People" might, but the post you're replying to didn't. All they said was "Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order" which implies a change is necessary, not whether that change is good/bad/whatever.
- majormajor 4y ago
  But Japan experienced that change already and it wasn't apocalyptic by any means. Puranjay's claim here is almost literally "change will happen, and it will bring grief." So change happening without much grief runs right against that. Meanwhile, the US has had any number of highly-adversarial, occasionally-violent political fights in the last decade while still in that "grow the top line" mindset. You could make a plausible argument that those additional few decades of "growth" has a lot to do with the violence and unrest, even, not the other way around. (For instance, see any of a number of takes from all over the political spectrum blaming increasing stratification of elites.) Hell, wasn't Marx predicting internal upheaval and self-defeat of capitalist economies many, many decades ago based on the same sort of demographics/populations/resources economic arguments? Things will change is an easy prediction, they haven't ever been stable. But it's also a meaningless one if you can't convincingly show that it's this decade not "any time between 10 and 200 years from now."
  - lostcolony 4y ago
    >> Puranjay's claim here is almost literally "change will happen, and it will bring grief." The only place he mentions grief (rather than "demographic change requires economic change") is at the very end, with "And any large scale shift in economic models comes with some grief, at the very least." Nowhere else. Some grief. As a footnote. That's hardly quantified, and itself could be covered simply by the fact change is hard. Japan was forced into changing, and...it went fine. The US hasn't yet. It'll require adjustment, which will probably bring some unpleasantness as we all adapt. That isn't alarmist, which was my point.
MR4D 4y ago
That’s likely to change for the worst for Japan in the next year or two, possibly as soon as this summer. They’re trying to defend their currency and interest rates at the same time. Already the Yen has taken a beating this year. They are at high risk of a huge economic shock. They’ve been able to postpone it, but just like getting out of a bad stock trade, only the first movers can do it, which means others can’t copy the Japanese strategy. Also, there are tons of specifics for Japan, such as education, economic drivers, geography and supply chains that make it unique, so it would be even harder to copy.
busterarm 4y ago
There's a distinct cost to that lack of doom. In fact, "lack of doom" depends entirely on where you live in Japan. Most of the country is somewhere on the spectrum of "moving to Tokyo" for economic opportunity. Smaller cities just seem to be a waypoint on that journey. Japanese work long hours and don't make very much money. The average salary is just under 54k USD. People continue to work well into old age and in many ways Japan's culture and history are becoming lost due to the rural/suburban exodus.
- diordiderot 4y ago
  > moving to Tokyo" for economic opportunity. This is happening on every country on earth and for good reason. Cities are more efficient. (Growth Ponzi Scheme) > Japanese work long hours and don't make very much money. That's culture and not an economic necessity. They also have a months holiday, maternity leave, and healthcare isn't 20% gdp. The French would say that Americans work a lot for little pay. > People continue to work well into old age Common in the west as well. Many countries have pushed back pension age since 2000. > Japan's culture and history are becoming lost due to the rural/suburban exodus. Cultures changes over time. Italian culture Italian culture did not include tomato sauces or pizza not to long ago. Hell, Italy wasn't a country! France didn't have a unified language until Napoleon
  - outworlder 4y ago
    > This is happening on every country on earth and for good reason. Cities are more efficient. (Growth Ponzi Scheme) This is missing the point. It's like saying "the entire US population wants to move to Washington DC because that's where the jobs are".
- mitchdoogle 4y ago
  Interesting take. The majority of Japanese live outside of the Tokyo metropolitan area. Maybe someday that will be untrue, but I don't think it will happen for a long while. The other big cities in Japan are still strong and several of the smaller cities. Some small towns and villages have died or going that way, but plenty are doing OK. But even in those places that are dying, people take great care to preserve and prolong Japanese culture and history. It is perhaps the country most interested in its own history and culture in all the world.
Longlius 4y ago
Japan has seen an explosive growth in poverty, especially among young people.
sleightofmind 4y ago
Thank you for this observation. Low-growth or no-growth societies have long been fodder for my what-iffing daydreaming.

lostcolony 4y ago

"People" might, but the post you're replying to didn't. All they said was "Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order" which implies a change is necessary, not whether that change is good/bad/whatever.

majormajor 4y ago
But Japan experienced that change already and it wasn't apocalyptic by any means. Puranjay's claim here is almost literally "change will happen, and it will bring grief." So change happening without much grief runs right against that. Meanwhile, the US has had any number of highly-adversarial, occasionally-violent political fights in the last decade while still in that "grow the top line" mindset. You could make a plausible argument that those additional few decades of "growth" has a lot to do with the violence and unrest, even, not the other way around. (For instance, see any of a number of takes from all over the political spectrum blaming increasing stratification of elites.) Hell, wasn't Marx predicting internal upheaval and self-defeat of capitalist economies many, many decades ago based on the same sort of demographics/populations/resources economic arguments? Things will change is an easy prediction, they haven't ever been stable. But it's also a meaningless one if you can't convincingly show that it's this decade not "any time between 10 and 200 years from now."
- lostcolony 4y ago
  >> Puranjay's claim here is almost literally "change will happen, and it will bring grief." The only place he mentions grief (rather than "demographic change requires economic change") is at the very end, with "And any large scale shift in economic models comes with some grief, at the very least." Nowhere else. Some grief. As a footnote. That's hardly quantified, and itself could be covered simply by the fact change is hard. Japan was forced into changing, and...it went fine. The US hasn't yet. It'll require adjustment, which will probably bring some unpleasantness as we all adapt. That isn't alarmist, which was my point.

MR4D 4y ago

That’s likely to change for the worst for Japan in the next year or two, possibly as soon as this summer. They’re trying to defend their currency and interest rates at the same time. Already the Yen has taken a beating this year. They are at high risk of a huge economic shock. They’ve been able to postpone it, but just like getting out of a bad stock trade, only the first movers can do it, which means others can’t copy the Japanese strategy. Also, there are tons of specifics for Japan, such as education, economic drivers, geography and supply chains that make it unique, so it would be even harder to copy.

busterarm 4y ago

There's a distinct cost to that lack of doom. In fact, "lack of doom" depends entirely on where you live in Japan. Most of the country is somewhere on the spectrum of "moving to Tokyo" for economic opportunity. Smaller cities just seem to be a waypoint on that journey. Japanese work long hours and don't make very much money. The average salary is just under 54k USD. People continue to work well into old age and in many ways Japan's culture and history are becoming lost due to the rural/suburban exodus.

diordiderot 4y ago
> moving to Tokyo" for economic opportunity. This is happening on every country on earth and for good reason. Cities are more efficient. (Growth Ponzi Scheme) > Japanese work long hours and don't make very much money. That's culture and not an economic necessity. They also have a months holiday, maternity leave, and healthcare isn't 20% gdp. The French would say that Americans work a lot for little pay. > People continue to work well into old age Common in the west as well. Many countries have pushed back pension age since 2000. > Japan's culture and history are becoming lost due to the rural/suburban exodus. Cultures changes over time. Italian culture Italian culture did not include tomato sauces or pizza not to long ago. Hell, Italy wasn't a country! France didn't have a unified language until Napoleon
- outworlder 4y ago
  > This is happening on every country on earth and for good reason. Cities are more efficient. (Growth Ponzi Scheme) This is missing the point. It's like saying "the entire US population wants to move to Washington DC because that's where the jobs are".
mitchdoogle 4y ago
Interesting take. The majority of Japanese live outside of the Tokyo metropolitan area. Maybe someday that will be untrue, but I don't think it will happen for a long while. The other big cities in Japan are still strong and several of the smaller cities. Some small towns and villages have died or going that way, but plenty are doing OK. But even in those places that are dying, people take great care to preserve and prolong Japanese culture and history. It is perhaps the country most interested in its own history and culture in all the world.

Longlius 4y ago

Japan has seen an explosive growth in poverty, especially among young people.

sleightofmind 4y ago

Thank you for this observation. Low-growth or no-growth societies have long been fodder for my what-iffing daydreaming.