I'm thinking more in terms of the NBER's definition of a recession. We're definitely seeing evidence of slower growth (which should lessen inflationary pressure

I'm thinking more in terms of the NBER's definition of a recession. We're definitely seeing evidence of slower growth (which should lessen inflationary pressures) but it's far from clear to me that we're heading into a recession in the NBER sense. Gas prices could drop, supply chain issues could lessen, and we could be back to normal growth by the end of the year. "The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—as somewhat interchangeable. That is, while each criterion needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another. For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity, the committee concluded that the subsequent drop in activity had been so great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that, even if it proved to be quite brief, the downturn should be classified as a recession." https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating