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awesome. I'm confused about two things: 1. "Not a single ship captain works in the Pentagon or any of the major national security think tanks." - I doubt ther
by asah 4y ago
awesome.
I'm confused about two things:
1. "Not a single ship captain works in the Pentagon or any of the major national security think tanks." - I doubt there are satellite operators, travel industry execs, farmers or construction workers either. US military leaders are tasked with zero substantial threats to US peace, security and order, and mostly succeeds, with the exceptions rare enough to be newsworthy (JFK/etc assassinations, WTC93 and 9/11, etc)
2. "Nearly everyone prospered and the oceans became safe for ships of immense size and slow speed, unlocking economies of scale that became possible only because the ocean became safe enough for shippers to put all their eggs – or at least 26,000 TEU’s worth of eggs – in one basket." - AFAICT, the TEU/container is the unit of shipping, not the whole ship. This means that ships can get larger and larger without increased financial/etc risk to producers or consumers. For many reasons, shipping companies own many ships and individual losses are a financial matter and not existential threat.
thoughts?
- bombcar 4y agoA TEU is a "Twenty-foot-equivalent" or a half-container (most containers you see are 40 footers. But the boats that carry them are huge and slow and absolutely sitting ducks to even a small navy (the Coast Guard could sink them, and improvised equipment could trash them relatively easily). If there was any risk of losing one of those ships to deliberate activity, all hell would break loose (the theory behind the article). Weather isn't even a major an issue anymore with modern predictions and satellites. So insurers are happy to insure at low risk odds, pennies or dollars per container. https://gcaptain.com/the-worst-containership-disasters-in-recent-history-in-photos/ https://gcaptain.com/the-worst-containership-disasters-in-re... (same website lol) has some of the big ones that have happened, all accidental.
- asah 4y agoSure, but after a couple are lost, the military would of course step in... so again I'm confused why the doomsday talk...
- agf 4y agoLarge, slow ships are easily found and caught. If that's a problem, then you build smaller, faster ships, which are less energy efficient. Losses of ships are only a financial matter because losses are very rare, so insurance is cheap. If losses become common, insurance costs skyrocket and the cost of doing business goes way up, reducing the amount of trade. That's what the article is saying will happen. I'm having trouble understanding what you're saying in the second sentence of #1. But primarily, none of the examples you cite were on the military to stop, they were the responsibility of civilian agencies.
- ip26 4y agoindividual losses are a financial matter and not existential threat That's entirely a function of the loss rate. If 50% of voyages are seized by pirates, that's not just a financial matter.
- asah 4y agoSure, but at that point the military of course steps in... (long before that point...) so again I'm confused...
- ip26 4y agoNot if the US Navy stops caring, which is the whole point. If there is no military to step in, piracy ends massive cargo ships, which ends the current immense economies of scale in shipping.