4 ms·

Just going to chime in with a non political fact: the withdrawal treaty was done by the previous administration, the planning by the military. It was always go

by bwb 4y ago

Just going to chime in with a non political fact: the withdrawal treaty was done by the previous administration, the planning by the military. It was always going to be a shit show. Presidents are not all powerful gods who control things like the stock market, inflation, or pulling everyone out of a foreign country.

FredPret 4y ago
It’s surprising to see people’s willingness to attribute everything that happens to the president. Trump: Stock market boom, Jobs boom, Covid, Police violence Biden: Recession The optimal Covid response will only be known a generation from now. The best government economic policy is something that has to play out over many years and has only a loose connection to broader economic performance. The cops are going to do what they’re going to do. Etc.
- ProjectArcturis 4y ago
  Sure, you can't attribute a recession or a boom to a president. But the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan is pretty much squarely on the shoulders of the Commander in Chief.
  - FredPret 4y ago
    So things like that, that the president does or does not do, can be laid at the feet of the president. But he does not control the economy, and does not know the perfect answer to a black swan event like Covid… since we don’t know what the perfect response looks like. For example, hard lockdown = possibly less Covid, more harm from the lockdown. No lockdown = possibly more Covid, economy keeps booming (unless everyone dies of Covid!). What’s the optimal mix? Nobody knows. The president, even if he knows, cannot snap his fingers and make it happen.
- lambic2 4y ago
  Isn't that a verifiable fact though, that Trump set the deadline to be fully out of Afghanistan and that it was going to be super messy with the aggressive timeline? Article from March 2021: https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/2021/03/17/us-troop-withdrawal-afghanistan-trumps-deadline-weighs-biden/4667248001/ https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/2021/03/17/u...
  - JPKab 4y ago
    Obama never would have withdrawn under the conditions. At the time of withdrawal, the Taliban was already long in violation of that treaty. Additionally, the US could have easily done as the Pentagon originally asked, and surged in troops to "cover the withdrawal" which is a standard tactic (and term) for withdrawing from war zones. By refusing to add boots on the ground to "cover the withdrawal" the US military was forced into a no-win situation, having to abandon Bagram and use HKIA, a completely indefensible airport with no controllable perimiter. Let me be clear: The withdrawal, if executed properly at a tactical level, was always going to end in a Taliban takeover. However, various tactical failures made it a vastly worse and accelerated affair than it needed to be. I will again emphasize that this NEVER WOULD HAVE HAPPENED UNDER OBAMA. It's important to state this, because we too often devolve to partisan comparisons on these topics, when the reality is that different administrations have highly varying degrees of competence in their personnel. Biden's biggest fault, in my opinion, is how loyal and kind he is to his team. They helped get him elected, he's very loyal to them for that, and as a result hasn't fired half of them the way he should have a long time ago, starting with Jake Sullivan.
    - bwb 4y ago
      You in no way know that, and that is a weird thing to say. Any president might have or might not, the point is you 100% do not know that.
JPKab 4y ago
I voted for Biden in 2020. It feels better to say this wasn't his fault for those of us who voted for him. It was his fault, and primarily a failure of his administration, especially Jake Sullivan, who is the least qualified National Security Advisor I've ever seen, including those who advised GW Bush, which is saying something. His qualifications are primarily political and partisan, and he's incredibly thin on actual defense matters. Feel free to take a look at his background, and prepare to be depressed that he wasn't fired immediately after that fiasco. In fact, nobody was fired from the administration, which for me was the most horrifying part. Obama's administration NEVER WOULD HAVE LET THIS HAPPEN. Specifically, "the planning by the military" was under constraints placed on it by the executive branch. (The constraints were that no more troops would be added on the ground to "cover the withdrawal" and that all civilian contractors had to be out of country months prior, which immediately destroyed all air capability depended upon by Afghan forces) And the idea that Biden was committed to any plan concocted in the Trump administration is absurd. (this treaty was already long in violation by Taliban as well) Nobody who voted for Biden, myself included, expected (or wanted!) him to cling to any plans developed by the previous administration. It's an excuse. I'm a former defense/intel contractor, I've been to Bagram on multiple occasions, and everyone in the DoD community knows that this was an executive branch mistake conflated with malignant obedience at the Pentagon command level. In case I sound partisan (I'm not), let me be extremely clear in my statement: The botched withdrawal of Afghanistan NEVER WOULD HAVE HAPPENED under Obama. His administration was vastly more competent than the current one, on multiple matters. Without a surge of troops to cover withdrawal, the US embassy in Kabul could not be secured simultaneously with Bagram. The decision was made to instead focus on securing the embassy AND HKI airport and to abandon Bagram instead. As is typical of decisions coming from the top levels of the Pentagon under intense executive pressure, all feedback from the ground of the plan's lack of feasibility was ignored, along with warnings of the rapidity of ADF collapse once civilian contractors were pulled from the hangars. I'm stating this because, not unlike the highly partisan administration under GW Bush, when partisans get too much power in administrations, you get disasters like this. Partisans are selected for loyalty over competence, and it's a growing epidemic in US politics that partisans get more and more power in successive administrations.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

by bwb 4y ago

FredPret 4y ago

It’s surprising to see people’s willingness to attribute everything that happens to the president. Trump: Stock market boom, Jobs boom, Covid, Police violence Biden: Recession The optimal Covid response will only be known a generation from now. The best government economic policy is something that has to play out over many years and has only a loose connection to broader economic performance. The cops are going to do what they’re going to do. Etc.

ProjectArcturis 4y ago
Sure, you can't attribute a recession or a boom to a president. But the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan is pretty much squarely on the shoulders of the Commander in Chief.
- FredPret 4y ago
  So things like that, that the president does or does not do, can be laid at the feet of the president. But he does not control the economy, and does not know the perfect answer to a black swan event like Covid… since we don’t know what the perfect response looks like. For example, hard lockdown = possibly less Covid, more harm from the lockdown. No lockdown = possibly more Covid, economy keeps booming (unless everyone dies of Covid!). What’s the optimal mix? Nobody knows. The president, even if he knows, cannot snap his fingers and make it happen.
lambic2 4y ago
Isn't that a verifiable fact though, that Trump set the deadline to be fully out of Afghanistan and that it was going to be super messy with the aggressive timeline? Article from March 2021: https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/2021/03/17/us-troop-withdrawal-afghanistan-trumps-deadline-weighs-biden/4667248001/ https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/2021/03/17/u...
- JPKab 4y ago
  Obama never would have withdrawn under the conditions. At the time of withdrawal, the Taliban was already long in violation of that treaty. Additionally, the US could have easily done as the Pentagon originally asked, and surged in troops to "cover the withdrawal" which is a standard tactic (and term) for withdrawing from war zones. By refusing to add boots on the ground to "cover the withdrawal" the US military was forced into a no-win situation, having to abandon Bagram and use HKIA, a completely indefensible airport with no controllable perimiter. Let me be clear: The withdrawal, if executed properly at a tactical level, was always going to end in a Taliban takeover. However, various tactical failures made it a vastly worse and accelerated affair than it needed to be. I will again emphasize that this NEVER WOULD HAVE HAPPENED UNDER OBAMA. It's important to state this, because we too often devolve to partisan comparisons on these topics, when the reality is that different administrations have highly varying degrees of competence in their personnel. Biden's biggest fault, in my opinion, is how loyal and kind he is to his team. They helped get him elected, he's very loyal to them for that, and as a result hasn't fired half of them the way he should have a long time ago, starting with Jake Sullivan.
  - bwb 4y ago
    You in no way know that, and that is a weird thing to say. Any president might have or might not, the point is you 100% do not know that.

JPKab 4y ago

I voted for Biden in 2020. It feels better to say this wasn't his fault for those of us who voted for him. It was his fault, and primarily a failure of his administration, especially Jake Sullivan, who is the least qualified National Security Advisor I've ever seen, including those who advised GW Bush, which is saying something. His qualifications are primarily political and partisan, and he's incredibly thin on actual defense matters. Feel free to take a look at his background, and prepare to be depressed that he wasn't fired immediately after that fiasco. In fact, nobody was fired from the administration, which for me was the most horrifying part. Obama's administration NEVER WOULD HAVE LET THIS HAPPEN. Specifically, "the planning by the military" was under constraints placed on it by the executive branch. (The constraints were that no more troops would be added on the ground to "cover the withdrawal" and that all civilian contractors had to be out of country months prior, which immediately destroyed all air capability depended upon by Afghan forces) And the idea that Biden was committed to any plan concocted in the Trump administration is absurd. (this treaty was already long in violation by Taliban as well) Nobody who voted for Biden, myself included, expected (or wanted!) him to cling to any plans developed by the previous administration. It's an excuse. I'm a former defense/intel contractor, I've been to Bagram on multiple occasions, and everyone in the DoD community knows that this was an executive branch mistake conflated with malignant obedience at the Pentagon command level. In case I sound partisan (I'm not), let me be extremely clear in my statement: The botched withdrawal of Afghanistan NEVER WOULD HAVE HAPPENED under Obama. His administration was vastly more competent than the current one, on multiple matters. Without a surge of troops to cover withdrawal, the US embassy in Kabul could not be secured simultaneously with Bagram. The decision was made to instead focus on securing the embassy AND HKI airport and to abandon Bagram instead. As is typical of decisions coming from the top levels of the Pentagon under intense executive pressure, all feedback from the ground of the plan's lack of feasibility was ignored, along with warnings of the rapidity of ADF collapse once civilian contractors were pulled from the hangars. I'm stating this because, not unlike the highly partisan administration under GW Bush, when partisans get too much power in administrations, you get disasters like this. Partisans are selected for loyalty over competence, and it's a growing epidemic in US politics that partisans get more and more power in successive administrations.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]