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I'm not too worried about loose nukes or nuclear terrorism. Every major nuclear power other than China incorporates PALs [1] into the design of their nuclear w

I'm not too worried about loose nukes or nuclear terrorism. Every major nuclear power other than China incorporates PALs [1] into the design of their nuclear weapons. Without a centrally generated & authenticated code, they don't function. The PAL is designed such that disabling it requires dismantling the nuclear weapon, which means you need to have the know-how to build nukes in the first place to re-enable it. This, incidentally, is why Ukraine gave Russia back its nukes after the fall of the Soviet Union. Without the codes in Moscow's possession they were just radioactive waste. I do expect a number of smaller conventional conflicts to break out in the transition, because that's what always happens when a hegemon loses its monopoly on physical force. It's going to be a bloody few decades, but not the end of humanity. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permissive_Action_Link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permissive_Action_Link

Comevius 4y ago
A PAL system can be just a combination lock. The people who gain access to the weapons themselves might also gain access to the codes and components necessary to arm them. Who's to say there is a pot of gold at the end of those bloody few decades, with the climate crisis ramping up and natural resources dwindling. We certainly willed the prosperity after the Second World War into existence, by getting better at cannibalizing our natural resources, unsustainably. I would expect the cannibalization of what's left to continue, with pockets of the world doing better for a while, the rest doing worst. I would also expect these pockets to increasingly not be able to share the benefits of innovation with the rest of the world.
deleted 4y ago
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fragmede 4y ago
Given that Chernobyl is located inside the Ukrainian border, “its nuclear waste” doesn’t seem like that good of an argument as to why they should have gotten rid of them, given recent events.

Comevius 4y ago

A PAL system can be just a combination lock. The people who gain access to the weapons themselves might also gain access to the codes and components necessary to arm them. Who's to say there is a pot of gold at the end of those bloody few decades, with the climate crisis ramping up and natural resources dwindling. We certainly willed the prosperity after the Second World War into existence, by getting better at cannibalizing our natural resources, unsustainably. I would expect the cannibalization of what's left to continue, with pockets of the world doing better for a while, the rest doing worst. I would also expect these pockets to increasingly not be able to share the benefits of innovation with the rest of the world.

deleted 4y ago

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fragmede 4y ago

Given that Chernobyl is located inside the Ukrainian border, “its nuclear waste” doesn’t seem like that good of an argument as to why they should have gotten rid of them, given recent events.