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I'm neither calling it good nor bad That's the real issue at stake. You should be calling it good, because it's progress. It's somewhat conceivable that there
by javert 15y ago
I'm neither calling it good nor bad
That's the real issue at stake. You should be calling it good, because it's progress.
It's somewhat conceivable that there can be times in future human history where there are large chunks of people who aren't capable of doing any productive work, but they probably won't be lasting. [1]
And for everyone who can find productive work, more efficiency in the global economy enables more production, thus more progress, and is therefore a plus.
[1] Partially because if we do things right, population will gracefully degrade in times when fewer jobs are available. (I'm not advocating more social controls to achieve this; providing additional money per-child to those on welfare, for example, goes strongly against this.)
- kstenerud 15y agoI'm not calling it good because I just don't see the graceful transition occurring. If anything, I see massive upheaval because almost everyone will deny the reality around them until it becomes impossible to do so. In a perfect world, I'd agree with you. However, we don't live in a perfect world.
- javert 15y agoDo you have any ideas on how to avoid or cope with this massive upheaval?
- sounds 15y agoI agree with you javert, that increased efficiency and productivity are good things. But I do so for a fairly uncommon reason: I think that we have very little idea of the capacity of one person. Our economy is still marked by massive disruption: technological innovation isn't just limited to services. Process engineering, chemical engineering, astronomy, physics, linguistics, archeology, ... they're all experiencing disruption at an increasing pace. They all increase GDP. To me, this is an indication that as we provide people with powerful tools, their minds expand to use those tools. The exponential feedback may become much more smooth (less "disruptive") but I think we're a long way from a local maximum. The current economy still "feels" like an idling 2-stroke leaf blower to me. It sputters and races because its carburetor and ignition are, well, inefficient. What would it take to get a jet engine-like economy?
- javert 15y agoI like what you're saying. However, you're not answering your comment's grandparent: how to avoid, cope with, or assume away the concern that a super-high-tech economy will leave unemployed people who aren't intellectually sophisticated enough to participate.
- kiba 15y agoor assume away the concern that a super-high-tech economy will leave unemployed people who aren't intellectually sophisticated enough to participate. Is changing your intellectual sophistication hard? I mean, I learn programming by basically bashing my fingers against the keyboard. The concepts aren't difficult to learn, but it require tons of practice to become competent.
- javert 15y agoWell, that's one (potentially valid) way to explain away the concern. (I should have said "explain away" instead of "assume away.")
- mcteapot 15y agoI personally work a lot with 3d animation. We use plugins and pre-made elements to create our animations. Because we are using 3rd party tools to create our final product, does this make us "middle-men (and women), glorified translators", Or is it only real if we where to make our tools form scratch.
- bluedanieru 15y agoIs changing your intellectual sophistication hard? Uhm, how isolated are you from large swaths of society, to ask this question? The answer is yes, once a person matures into adulthood if they haven't acquired this and an appreciation for learning they almost certainly aren't going to. There are people who regard most intellectual activity with disinterest in the best case, and outright hostility in the worst. This group of people is known as "almost everybody in the world". As for what to do with them, probably the most consistent approach if you want to stick to something resembling market economics is to let them starve. My objection to that isn't so much moral as it is practical (i.e. I dislike riots), and I favor giving them money instead.
- piccadilly 15y agoDeveloped countries might provide a safety net and strong job retraining programs
- kstenerud 15y agoIt's not an easy problem to solve, and certainly not something I could come up with a reasonable answer to in short order... One additional wrinkle will be the tendency of the poor to have more children than the rich, exacerbating the jobs-to-people ratio problem.