3 ms·

> the idea that soon oil will run out, bringing about the end of society as we know it That's not what peak oil means. The oil will never "run out". In a hundr

by dmm 15y ago

> the idea that soon oil will run out, bringing about the end of society as we know it That's not what peak oil means. The oil will never "run out". In a hundred years we will still be pumping oil out of Saudi Arabia. A person can be surrounded by a whole world of air and still suffocate if their lungs are inflamed and full of fluid. A person is doomed if the effort of drawing a breath consumes more oxygen than derived from that breath. Likewise it doesn't matter how many barrels of oil are in the ground or under the sea if producing a barrel of oil takes more energy than can be derived from that oil. It doesn't matter how many acres are covered in tar sands if the facilities to convert those sands to oil aren't built. That said, the people in this article are crazy.

blake8086 15y ago
I wouldn't be so sure. I think one day we'll see oil wells with vast temporary solar arrays deployed next to them pumping oil for the millions of gas and diesel-burning engines that are still in the wild. We'll be spending 10 barrels worth of energy to get a barrel of oil because there's so much infrastructure investment in oil.
- dmm 15y ago
  There is a lot of interesting analysis regarding possible responses to declining oil production. If you respond to a 3% decline in production by building infrastructure to produce energy by other means, you only deepen the energy deficit because that infrastructure takes energy to build. Check out this article: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8526 http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8526 You might right though. Sperm whale oil is still used to lubricate satellites.
  - Retric 15y ago
    If you look at how much energy has been harnessed by farms over time you will see a far more gradual increase. In 2008, total worldwide energy consumption was 474 exajoules (474×1018 J=132,000 TWh). Oil remained the largest energy source (33%) despite the fact that its share has been decreasing over time. Coal posted a growing role in the world's energy consumption: in 2009, it accounted for 27% of the total. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photosynthetic_efficiency http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photosynthetic_efficiency Typical crop plants: 1–2% http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth Permanent pastures: 26% Permanent crops 4.71% The estimated amount of irrigated land in 1993 was 2,481,250 km2 So something like 1% efficiency * 2,481,250 km2 * 1,000,000 m^2/km * 1kwh / m^2 * 1000w / kw * 8 hours a day * 365 days a year * 3600j = 2.60829 × 10 ^ 21J or 724,525TWH granted plants use much of that but farms are still producing something like 70% of the worlds energy and then spending a large fraction of that on farm animals.

by dmm 15y ago

blake8086 15y ago

I wouldn't be so sure. I think one day we'll see oil wells with vast temporary solar arrays deployed next to them pumping oil for the millions of gas and diesel-burning engines that are still in the wild. We'll be spending 10 barrels worth of energy to get a barrel of oil because there's so much infrastructure investment in oil.

dmm 15y ago
There is a lot of interesting analysis regarding possible responses to declining oil production. If you respond to a 3% decline in production by building infrastructure to produce energy by other means, you only deepen the energy deficit because that infrastructure takes energy to build. Check out this article: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8526 http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8526 You might right though. Sperm whale oil is still used to lubricate satellites.
- Retric 15y ago
  If you look at how much energy has been harnessed by farms over time you will see a far more gradual increase. In 2008, total worldwide energy consumption was 474 exajoules (474×1018 J=132,000 TWh). Oil remained the largest energy source (33%) despite the fact that its share has been decreasing over time. Coal posted a growing role in the world's energy consumption: in 2009, it accounted for 27% of the total. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photosynthetic_efficiency http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photosynthetic_efficiency Typical crop plants: 1–2% http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth Permanent pastures: 26% Permanent crops 4.71% The estimated amount of irrigated land in 1993 was 2,481,250 km2 So something like 1% efficiency * 2,481,250 km2 * 1,000,000 m^2/km * 1kwh / m^2 * 1000w / kw * 8 hours a day * 365 days a year * 3600j = 2.60829 × 10 ^ 21J or 724,525TWH granted plants use much of that but farms are still producing something like 70% of the worlds energy and then spending a large fraction of that on farm animals.