3 ms·

So much of what is called being "wrecked by success" is just regular old regression to the mean (which is not usually real regression--i.e., there is no underly

by cs137 4y ago

So much of what is called being "wrecked by success" is just regular old regression to the mean (which is not usually real regression--i.e., there is no underlying degradation--but simply the contrast between early skill-plus-outlier-luck and, later, mere skill-plus-average-luck). Most people are mediocre in their early years and get filtered out, even though a good percentage of them had the underlying talent and skill, and just never got lucky. Most of the ones who succeed once aren't going to succeed again, not because they're actually getting dumber but because non-success is the norm in this world. Wreckage by success can happen, but it usually requires some odious externality that the person is unable to handle. You see this in the arts and in the literary world, because authors start getting invited to the parties that become necessary to make connections (for reviews, resources, and future publication) and then turn into coke zombies who can't write anymore. You don't see it as much with math professors, because there is no incentive pulling them into that scene--with the latter, it's just regular regression to the mean.

filoleg 4y ago
>and then turn into coke zombies who can't write anymore They can also turn into coke zombies who are still able to write. Stephen King claimed that he was so out of it during that period of his life, he straight up doesn't remember writing Cujo at all[0]. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cujo#Background https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cujo#Background
- cs137 4y ago
  Stephen King is a special case for all sorts of reasons. He's undeniably talented, which even his detractors will admit. (The complaint of literary snobs isn't that he's a bad writer, but that he puts his talent toward genres of writing they don't like.) His quality profile is also notably variable, which is also part of why he has so many detractors. He also came up in a time when publishing was more forgiving of idiosyncrasies and personal difficulties. (In today's world, a literary agent will fire and cancel you on Twitter if you get a pronoun wrong by mistake.) Finally, he was always a high-functioning drug addict, and there are a lot more of them than most people think (although it seems rare to stay high-functioning for more than a few years). The thing about King, love him or hate him, is that he loves to write. Most people, even among successful novelists, don't--and that's OK, because it's extremely difficult to do well, and the rewards are astronomically uncommon. I think this explains why he was able to write decent books even while battling these demons.

by cs137 4y ago

filoleg 4y ago

>and then turn into coke zombies who can't write anymore They can also turn into coke zombies who are still able to write. Stephen King claimed that he was so out of it during that period of his life, he straight up doesn't remember writing Cujo at all[0]. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cujo#Background https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cujo#Background

cs137 4y ago
Stephen King is a special case for all sorts of reasons. He's undeniably talented, which even his detractors will admit. (The complaint of literary snobs isn't that he's a bad writer, but that he puts his talent toward genres of writing they don't like.) His quality profile is also notably variable, which is also part of why he has so many detractors. He also came up in a time when publishing was more forgiving of idiosyncrasies and personal difficulties. (In today's world, a literary agent will fire and cancel you on Twitter if you get a pronoun wrong by mistake.) Finally, he was always a high-functioning drug addict, and there are a lot more of them than most people think (although it seems rare to stay high-functioning for more than a few years). The thing about King, love him or hate him, is that he loves to write. Most people, even among successful novelists, don't--and that's OK, because it's extremely difficult to do well, and the rewards are astronomically uncommon. I think this explains why he was able to write decent books even while battling these demons.