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I like to bring up the Newton/Palm/iPhone example when we talk about emergent tech. If you grew up in the 90s, you probably remember hand held PCs, and Apple N
by lxe 4y ago
I like to bring up the Newton/Palm/iPhone example when we talk about emergent tech.
If you grew up in the 90s, you probably remember hand held PCs, and Apple Newton. Those were pretty cool. I wouldn't really HAVE to have one, but those were pretty neat. Then the "PDA" appeared -- I knew many who had those and used them for business. "Regular folks" didn't really need one but they could find these devices to be pretty useful. Then Blackberry came about, and then BOOM -- the capacitive touchscreen, and the iPhone with a few killer features that drastically changed mobile computing for the last 15 years. Everyone has one.
Sometimes it takes decades for someone to "get it right" as tech matures. VR is in the pre-newton stage... if we are to compare the "final form" of VR to be what we think of smart phones now, VR is probably in the "60's or 70's era" stage of development. We probably won't see an explosion or a revolution of VR-tech for a few decades.
- goodoldneon 4y agoI think VR/AR will see huge adoption a lot sooner. I see a few prerequisites: - Hi-res screens (no more screen door effect). - No external hardware needed: no desktop, no base stations, and no controllers. - Capable of 100% VR, 100% pass-through, and everything in between. In other words, VR and AR no longer refer to different hardware but rather different modes. - Under $500. Some units have some of those qualities but none have all of them. I can see units having all of those qualities within the next 10 years.
- cwalv 4y agoI think having all those in the next 5 years is very likely .. assuming $500 is adjusted for inflation