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They do this for transit projects in Toronto. They calculate the total infrastructure + operational cost of the project over 60 years then compare it with the e

They do this for transit projects in Toronto. They calculate the total infrastructure + operational cost of the project over 60 years then compare it with the estimated economical benefits of having this project. They still ended up approving many negative projects, even while there were other cheaper/better located transit projects with more benefits. The political cost of cancelling those projects was higher (ex: Mayor has campaigned on getting it approved and there was no way he would get back on that) It's still interesting to see it and calculate it, as a matter of transparency, but its still not a guarantee of success. https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/costs-for-scarborough-subway-and-eglinton-west-lrt-exceed-economic-benefits-by-billions-metrolinx-1.4833247 https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/costs-for-scarborough-subway-and-...

Ma8ee 4y ago
When you do this kind of estimates, in particular when the time scale is many decades, the outcome depends on way to many assumptions and other projections to even a little reliable. I still think it is useful exercises, but it is certainly legitimate to use it as only one of many variables in the decision making process.
- bombcar 4y ago
  I spent a large amount of time years ago reading the LOSSAN reports [95] and it would have been interesting to see things noted as "for certain will help" and "most likely will help" etc. Many of the improvements were things like "double track this single-track section between two double-tracked ones" which would almost certainly help; others were things like bridge replacements which wouldn't necessarily help but would prevent maintenance issues in the future, to things like station improvements which would only really help travel times if travel volumes got above a certain amount. For example, this project: https://www.octa.net/LOSSAN-Rail-Corridor-Agency/Central-Coast-Layover-Facility/ https://www.octa.net/LOSSAN-Rail-Corridor-Agency/Central-Coa... doesn't really change average transit times, but would allow two or three trains to "start" each day at the farthest north. Of course US passenger rail is in such a state that there's almost always very obvious low-hanging fruit. [95]: https://www.octa.net/LOSSAN-Rail-Corridor-Agency/Overview/ https://www.octa.net/LOSSAN-Rail-Corridor-Agency/Overview/
ur-whale 4y ago
> They do this for transit projects in Toronto. They may do this, but whether the number they derive has any kind of meaning or value is another thing altogether.

Ma8ee 4y ago

When you do this kind of estimates, in particular when the time scale is many decades, the outcome depends on way to many assumptions and other projections to even a little reliable. I still think it is useful exercises, but it is certainly legitimate to use it as only one of many variables in the decision making process.

bombcar 4y ago
I spent a large amount of time years ago reading the LOSSAN reports [95] and it would have been interesting to see things noted as "for certain will help" and "most likely will help" etc. Many of the improvements were things like "double track this single-track section between two double-tracked ones" which would almost certainly help; others were things like bridge replacements which wouldn't necessarily help but would prevent maintenance issues in the future, to things like station improvements which would only really help travel times if travel volumes got above a certain amount. For example, this project: https://www.octa.net/LOSSAN-Rail-Corridor-Agency/Central-Coast-Layover-Facility/ https://www.octa.net/LOSSAN-Rail-Corridor-Agency/Central-Coa... doesn't really change average transit times, but would allow two or three trains to "start" each day at the farthest north. Of course US passenger rail is in such a state that there's almost always very obvious low-hanging fruit. [95]: https://www.octa.net/LOSSAN-Rail-Corridor-Agency/Overview/ https://www.octa.net/LOSSAN-Rail-Corridor-Agency/Overview/

ur-whale 4y ago

> They do this for transit projects in Toronto. They may do this, but whether the number they derive has any kind of meaning or value is another thing altogether.