Orkut is a great reminder that social networks succeed because of external network effects. Why did it take off where it did and not elsewhere? How would you

Orkut is a great reminder that social networks succeed because of external network effects. Why did it take off where it did and not elsewhere? How would you predict or model that? This reminds me of Elon Musk flexing his muscles re. Twitter. Sure, a lot of people use Twitter right now. But don’t you know how this could change completely in 6-12 months because of the smallest of changes in the product? Or that when that happens, no change you make will ever turn it back?