3 ms·
Good question! If I knew the answer, (well if I knew it would be NO) then I could get rich by betting on it using options or something like that. Ahh. hold on,
by quickthrower2 4y ago
Good question! If I knew the answer, (well if I knew it would be NO) then I could get rich by betting on it using options or something like that.
Ahh. hold on, let's use that fact:
Let's say another 50% or more reduction in share price is 'bad' for you, the options market says the chance of that happening by the end of the year (well Jan 2023) is 10% ish, if I am reading it right. So the market thinks they will likely survive for about your internship anyway.
The probability of 10% is surprisingly about the same going forward another year to Jan 2024. So I think you are OK. If someone disagrees, go make some money, the market is ready to hand you cash.
This is quite a crude way, but it puts some probabilities on it, otherwise it is just my opinion something like "yes crypto is dead they'll go bust" which is just not based on anything.
Reference: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/COIN/volatility-greeks?moneyness=50&expiration=2024-01-19-m https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/COIN/volatility-greek...
Where "Delta" is approximately the probability of the option being exercised.
Now if you really want to make money, bet with your friends on things that sound unlikely but are likely, based on the deltas of options.