5 ms·

You point more generally to the gradual total disappearance of skilled jobs that almost anyone can do with sufficient (substantial) training. These are jobs tha

You point more generally to the gradual total disappearance of skilled jobs that almost anyone can do with sufficient (substantial) training. These are jobs that are both amenable to automation and most profitable to automate. In a few decades, we will be left with skilled jobs that only people with certain innate abilities can perform (after substantial training), and menial jobs that anyone can do with very little training.

sebmellen 4y ago
Don’t forget skilled jobs in the “real” world. Plumbers, electricians, and the like will not die out.
- MontyCarloHall 4y ago
  Agreed! Only people with a fairly high level of innate intelligence can become master tradespeople. Note that I’m not referring to low level positions, e.g. plumbing techs who only snake drains for their whole life or electrical techs who only change outlets.
  - EnKopVand 4y ago
    I think it can be hard to predict these things. At least it’s not hard for me to imagine someone coming up with a way to make plumbing standard and easily replaceable in most buildings. Sort of how brick walls became something to come off an assembly line a few decades ago. Today we’re back to more traditional bricklaying here in Denmark because the assembly line stuff wasn’t aesthetic enough to keep selling, but the way we construct buildings has for the most part become like building with legos, and a heap of important trade skills that requires skilled tradespeople died along the way. All it takes for things like electricity and plumbing to go that way is for a company to figure out how to mass produce systems that are as easy to plug in as the rest (which has sort of already happened with ikea houses) and take it to world wide adoption. This is not to say that I disagree with you, but being adaptable is more important than being just skilled. A lot of those typists eventually became secretaries and then spread further out to different parts of organisations, and a lot of them are still there. It’s only the people who don’t adapt who get left behind, and I’d like to point out here that I’m not a fan of that term. As I am Scandinavian that is probably of little surprise to people, but I think society has a responsibility to keep people useful so long that we require them to work until they are 73+.
- IMSAI8080 4y ago
  I agree it would be very difficult to get robots to do either plumbing or electrics in a home environment as it is. However another option is that the job becomes simplified and dumbed down so home owners can do it themselves or with low skilled labour. For example I would never consider replacing a gas boiler myself as it stands, but what if it was just a slot in unit of standardised size with simple idiot proof connectors no one could get wrong? What if it's an electrical heat pump with no explosive gases or carbon monoxide safety to worry about? Even if the home owner doesn't want to replace it, it might get simple enough that a lightly trained delivery truck driver could do it. For example the delivery guy installed my washing machine, not a plumber.
  - eru 4y ago
    Riffing on your example: even just the though of making all appliances cheap enough to be replaced when they break down, instead of repairing them, was and is a big step in this direction.
  - semi-extrinsic 4y ago
    Sadly (IMHO) the world is generally going in the opposite direction. At least in Northern Europe there is more and more standardization of "this should be done exactly in Y dimension using material Z with connector X", and if you can't document compliance with that standard, your house is worth slightly less when you try to sell it.
  - maccard 4y ago
    The problem with this isn't the new, it's the old. I live in a house that's almost 150 years old and _nothing_ is standard. I tried to hang a mirror on a wall yesterday, and turns out the wall isn't plumb - what should have been a 30 minute job turned into half a day of fixing up and making good 4 holes in the wall and shaving back the plaster to mount the bracket flush.
  - dogleash 4y ago
    >However another option is that the job becomes simplified and dumbed down so home owners can do it themselves or with low skilled labour. I come from a DIY family, I don't think skill is the primary barrier. The "why would you do that when you can just pay someone to do it?" attitude is pervasive. That's not a dismissive characterization either, that's paraphrasing as best I can what a friend said when another friend and I were on the couch watching a youtube maker video. And it's an attitude I've heard again and again over the years.
brazzy 4y ago
> skilled jobs that almost anyone can do with sufficient (substantial) training. These are jobs that are both amenable to automation The correlation between "almost any human can do it with sufficient training" and "amenable to automation" is weak to non-existing.
eru 4y ago
One curious class of jobs might be hanger-ons: people who are just there to give attention to rich-enough folks.

sebmellen 4y ago

Don’t forget skilled jobs in the “real” world. Plumbers, electricians, and the like will not die out.

MontyCarloHall 4y ago
Agreed! Only people with a fairly high level of innate intelligence can become master tradespeople. Note that I’m not referring to low level positions, e.g. plumbing techs who only snake drains for their whole life or electrical techs who only change outlets.
- EnKopVand 4y ago
  I think it can be hard to predict these things. At least it’s not hard for me to imagine someone coming up with a way to make plumbing standard and easily replaceable in most buildings. Sort of how brick walls became something to come off an assembly line a few decades ago. Today we’re back to more traditional bricklaying here in Denmark because the assembly line stuff wasn’t aesthetic enough to keep selling, but the way we construct buildings has for the most part become like building with legos, and a heap of important trade skills that requires skilled tradespeople died along the way. All it takes for things like electricity and plumbing to go that way is for a company to figure out how to mass produce systems that are as easy to plug in as the rest (which has sort of already happened with ikea houses) and take it to world wide adoption. This is not to say that I disagree with you, but being adaptable is more important than being just skilled. A lot of those typists eventually became secretaries and then spread further out to different parts of organisations, and a lot of them are still there. It’s only the people who don’t adapt who get left behind, and I’d like to point out here that I’m not a fan of that term. As I am Scandinavian that is probably of little surprise to people, but I think society has a responsibility to keep people useful so long that we require them to work until they are 73+.
IMSAI8080 4y ago
I agree it would be very difficult to get robots to do either plumbing or electrics in a home environment as it is. However another option is that the job becomes simplified and dumbed down so home owners can do it themselves or with low skilled labour. For example I would never consider replacing a gas boiler myself as it stands, but what if it was just a slot in unit of standardised size with simple idiot proof connectors no one could get wrong? What if it's an electrical heat pump with no explosive gases or carbon monoxide safety to worry about? Even if the home owner doesn't want to replace it, it might get simple enough that a lightly trained delivery truck driver could do it. For example the delivery guy installed my washing machine, not a plumber.
- eru 4y ago
  Riffing on your example: even just the though of making all appliances cheap enough to be replaced when they break down, instead of repairing them, was and is a big step in this direction.
- semi-extrinsic 4y ago
  Sadly (IMHO) the world is generally going in the opposite direction. At least in Northern Europe there is more and more standardization of "this should be done exactly in Y dimension using material Z with connector X", and if you can't document compliance with that standard, your house is worth slightly less when you try to sell it.
- maccard 4y ago
  The problem with this isn't the new, it's the old. I live in a house that's almost 150 years old and _nothing_ is standard. I tried to hang a mirror on a wall yesterday, and turns out the wall isn't plumb - what should have been a 30 minute job turned into half a day of fixing up and making good 4 holes in the wall and shaving back the plaster to mount the bracket flush.
- dogleash 4y ago
  >However another option is that the job becomes simplified and dumbed down so home owners can do it themselves or with low skilled labour. I come from a DIY family, I don't think skill is the primary barrier. The "why would you do that when you can just pay someone to do it?" attitude is pervasive. That's not a dismissive characterization either, that's paraphrasing as best I can what a friend said when another friend and I were on the couch watching a youtube maker video. And it's an attitude I've heard again and again over the years.

brazzy 4y ago

> skilled jobs that almost anyone can do with sufficient (substantial) training. These are jobs that are both amenable to automation The correlation between "almost any human can do it with sufficient training" and "amenable to automation" is weak to non-existing.

eru 4y ago

One curious class of jobs might be hanger-ons: people who are just there to give attention to rich-enough folks.