4 ms·

What no one there ran a risk calculation on Bitcoin hitting 20k? This level is not that unlikely, this isn’t a black swan.

dragontamer 4y ago
IIRC, the Celsius problem isn't BTC, but some complex relationship between stETH, ETH, and ETH2. But yes, BTC dropping and scaring people into wanting their ETH tokens back should have been part of the calculus.
- EdwardDiego 4y ago
  Real currency swaps or whatevs are complicated enough, funny money swaps feel like they're beyond the people running them.
- lopatin 4y ago
  It seems to that it's still all about BTC. BTC drops, ETH drops as a result, industry suffers a liquidity crisis, stETH depegs, Celsius pauses withdrawals, and here we are? I don't understand all of this too well, so I can definitely be wrong, but I am under the impression that if BTC didn't drop, this DeFi party would still be going strong.
  - dragontamer 4y ago
    Its the cause-and-effect here that's important. Three Arrow Capital lost hundreds-of-millions of UST during the Lunacoin / UST implosion a month ago. The fallout of that is still being felt. Celsius was related to Three Arrow Capital somehow. Etc. etc. Honestly, I'm not yet sure how or why BTC is moving with them. But I don't think BTC is the source of this turbulence. I think a whole lot of shitcoins (Luna/UST in particular) was the first peg to fall. There's a direct link of Luna/UST to Three Arrow Capital, and a link from 3AC to Celsius. The link then extends to stETH, which extends to ETH, which is then correlated to BTC.
    - Nursie 4y ago
      IIRC 3ac was also invested in GBTC which is a whole separate barrel of weird - a share issuing entity which holds BTC and issues shares in proportion to holdings. It was supposed to act as a proxy for BTC price. But due to regulations not going it’s way, it could never sell/redeem the BTC, and now the shares in the entity have collapsed more than Bitcoin has.
      - dragontamer 4y ago
        GBTC is an entity that has proven the existence of it's BTC. You can see it as future BTC where the future date is undetermined, possibly infinite at the moment. GBTC being low just means that the stock market thinks BTC is going down for the near future. To the point where it is willing to trade GBTC at a discount to it's book value. We all know GBTC is good on it's BTC holdings. We just don't know when it's regulators will let them sell and act as a fully functioning ETF.
        Nursie 4y ago
        > GBTC being low just means that the stock market thinks BTC is going down for the near future Or that a stock in a fund which cannot sell its BTC is even less useful and appealing than holding BTC itself. > We just don't know when it's regulators will let them sell and act as a fully functioning ETF. If. We don't know 'if'. A BTC black-hole being cheaper than bitcoin is not that surprising.
        dragontamer 4y ago
        > If. We don't know 'if'. A BTC black-hole being cheaper than bitcoin is not that surprising. Your theory doesn't match reality. GBTC was trading at a premium a few months ago. I personally believe GBTC is just able to predict the future direction of BTC. It is easier, and more convenient, for most people to speculate upon the value of BTC using GBTC. When the market thought it was going up, it bought GBTC at a premium. Now that the market thinks it is going down, it sells GBTC at a discount. -------- GBTC, as a basket of BTC, is more open and honest than using pseudo-baskets, like MicroStrategy, to speculate upon the price of cryptocurrencies. The general stock market wants to play speculation games, with GBTC, BITI, MicroStrategy, and maybe even Tesla a little bit (sure there is a car company attached but everyone knows Tesla has a large BTC holding).
  - lmm 4y ago
    As the saying goes, all correlations go to 1 in a crisis.
- latchkey 4y ago
  It is tied up in more than that. Look up UST and Badger DAO.

dragontamer 4y ago

IIRC, the Celsius problem isn't BTC, but some complex relationship between stETH, ETH, and ETH2. But yes, BTC dropping and scaring people into wanting their ETH tokens back should have been part of the calculus.

EdwardDiego 4y ago
Real currency swaps or whatevs are complicated enough, funny money swaps feel like they're beyond the people running them.
lopatin 4y ago
It seems to that it's still all about BTC. BTC drops, ETH drops as a result, industry suffers a liquidity crisis, stETH depegs, Celsius pauses withdrawals, and here we are? I don't understand all of this too well, so I can definitely be wrong, but I am under the impression that if BTC didn't drop, this DeFi party would still be going strong.
- dragontamer 4y ago
  Its the cause-and-effect here that's important. Three Arrow Capital lost hundreds-of-millions of UST during the Lunacoin / UST implosion a month ago. The fallout of that is still being felt. Celsius was related to Three Arrow Capital somehow. Etc. etc. Honestly, I'm not yet sure how or why BTC is moving with them. But I don't think BTC is the source of this turbulence. I think a whole lot of shitcoins (Luna/UST in particular) was the first peg to fall. There's a direct link of Luna/UST to Three Arrow Capital, and a link from 3AC to Celsius. The link then extends to stETH, which extends to ETH, which is then correlated to BTC.
  - Nursie 4y ago
    IIRC 3ac was also invested in GBTC which is a whole separate barrel of weird - a share issuing entity which holds BTC and issues shares in proportion to holdings. It was supposed to act as a proxy for BTC price. But due to regulations not going it’s way, it could never sell/redeem the BTC, and now the shares in the entity have collapsed more than Bitcoin has.
    - dragontamer 4y ago
      GBTC is an entity that has proven the existence of it's BTC. You can see it as future BTC where the future date is undetermined, possibly infinite at the moment. GBTC being low just means that the stock market thinks BTC is going down for the near future. To the point where it is willing to trade GBTC at a discount to it's book value. We all know GBTC is good on it's BTC holdings. We just don't know when it's regulators will let them sell and act as a fully functioning ETF.
      - Nursie 4y ago
        > GBTC being low just means that the stock market thinks BTC is going down for the near future Or that a stock in a fund which cannot sell its BTC is even less useful and appealing than holding BTC itself. > We just don't know when it's regulators will let them sell and act as a fully functioning ETF. If. We don't know 'if'. A BTC black-hole being cheaper than bitcoin is not that surprising.
        dragontamer 4y ago
        > If. We don't know 'if'. A BTC black-hole being cheaper than bitcoin is not that surprising. Your theory doesn't match reality. GBTC was trading at a premium a few months ago. I personally believe GBTC is just able to predict the future direction of BTC. It is easier, and more convenient, for most people to speculate upon the value of BTC using GBTC. When the market thought it was going up, it bought GBTC at a premium. Now that the market thinks it is going down, it sells GBTC at a discount. -------- GBTC, as a basket of BTC, is more open and honest than using pseudo-baskets, like MicroStrategy, to speculate upon the price of cryptocurrencies. The general stock market wants to play speculation games, with GBTC, BITI, MicroStrategy, and maybe even Tesla a little bit (sure there is a car company attached but everyone knows Tesla has a large BTC holding).
- lmm 4y ago
  As the saying goes, all correlations go to 1 in a crisis.
latchkey 4y ago
It is tied up in more than that. Look up UST and Badger DAO.