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The thing is, statistics is against you on this. You only need 1 instance of careless driver, 1 aggressive dog or clueless wild animal to have a relative high s

The thing is, statistics is against you on this. You only need 1 instance of careless driver, 1 aggressive dog or clueless wild animal to have a relative high speed crash. In that case, your skills and experience will not matter. Its all nice in echo chambers with heavy survivorship bias where everybody claims how they are fine (but had close calls here and there, often not even realizing them), but its far from reality. If you want some counter-balance (which most folks in these echo chambers really don't want), talk to some ER folks, or orthopedics.

alisonatwork 4y ago
Clearly riding a bicycle on roads designed for much heavier, much faster vehicles isn't the safest pursuit in the world. Of course you would be much safer sitting at home. But that's a calculation you make any time you decide to step out the door. The way some people talk about cycling you'd think that merely getting on a bicycle for longer than 10km means instant death. That's obviously not the case, because there are always far more people who have successfully cycled any given stretch of road than ones who have died on it. The question people should ask themselves is if the risk is worth the benefits for them. And, if they have decided yes, then it's certainly more enjoyable to not spend every moment on that road terrified of other vehicles, whose behavior you have very little control over. If you want to do it, just do it.
skeeter2020 4y ago
You don't counter "heavy survivorship bias" as you frame it by swinging to the other end and talking to ER docs about their horror stories; humans don't process information by consuming extreme data points and then internally averaging them into some sort of model. You look at the data in aggregate and end up pretty much where the experienced touring posts here land, which is rare but real risks sprinkled across typically accident-free riding. "statistics is against you on this" is NOT the reality, in terms of likelyhood of accident or severity comparing car travel to bike travel.
twmiller 4y ago
How is that “counter-balance”? Obviously the medical folks are only going to have talked to people who’ve had accidents, where as the bike forums are filled with people who’ve had accidents, who’ve had close calls, and who’ve had no issues. For what it’s worth, I’ve got thousands of miles on a touring bike under my belt. I’ve had close calls…but I’ve also had close calls driving, flying, and boating. I’ve had close calls swimming and climbing, too. If the alternative is to hang out in my basement on the computer where it’s ‘safe’ all the time, I’d rather stick to the close calls.

alisonatwork 4y ago

Clearly riding a bicycle on roads designed for much heavier, much faster vehicles isn't the safest pursuit in the world. Of course you would be much safer sitting at home. But that's a calculation you make any time you decide to step out the door. The way some people talk about cycling you'd think that merely getting on a bicycle for longer than 10km means instant death. That's obviously not the case, because there are always far more people who have successfully cycled any given stretch of road than ones who have died on it. The question people should ask themselves is if the risk is worth the benefits for them. And, if they have decided yes, then it's certainly more enjoyable to not spend every moment on that road terrified of other vehicles, whose behavior you have very little control over. If you want to do it, just do it.

skeeter2020 4y ago

You don't counter "heavy survivorship bias" as you frame it by swinging to the other end and talking to ER docs about their horror stories; humans don't process information by consuming extreme data points and then internally averaging them into some sort of model. You look at the data in aggregate and end up pretty much where the experienced touring posts here land, which is rare but real risks sprinkled across typically accident-free riding. "statistics is against you on this" is NOT the reality, in terms of likelyhood of accident or severity comparing car travel to bike travel.

twmiller 4y ago

How is that “counter-balance”? Obviously the medical folks are only going to have talked to people who’ve had accidents, where as the bike forums are filled with people who’ve had accidents, who’ve had close calls, and who’ve had no issues. For what it’s worth, I’ve got thousands of miles on a touring bike under my belt. I’ve had close calls…but I’ve also had close calls driving, flying, and boating. I’ve had close calls swimming and climbing, too. If the alternative is to hang out in my basement on the computer where it’s ‘safe’ all the time, I’d rather stick to the close calls.