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> Even if you like bitcoin you could’ve cashed out and repurchased. The HODL strategy is based on the belief that: 1) Bitcoin has not yet reached its full pote
by olalonde 4y ago
> Even if you like bitcoin you could’ve cashed out and repurchased.
The HODL strategy is based on the belief that: 1) Bitcoin has not yet reached its full potential. 2) Short-term price movements are unknowable.
You may disagree with #1 but I'd say you're delusional if you think you can predict Bitcoin price movements.
Of course, this is just my dumbed-down version of the strategy. For a more nuanced and rigorous version, it's better to read the source directly[0]:
> I type d that tyitle twice because I knew it was wrong the first time. Still wrong. w/e. GF's out at a lesbian bar, BTC crashing WHY AM I HOLDING? I'LL TELL YOU WHY. It's because I'm a bad trader and I KNOW I'M A BAD TRADER. Yeah you good traders can spot the highs and the lows pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that and make a millino bucks sure no problem bro. Likewise the weak hands are like OH NO IT'S GOING DOWN I'M GONNA SELL he he he and then they're like OH GOD MY ASSHOLE when the SMART traders who KNOW WHAT THE FUCK THEY'RE DOING buy back in but you know what? I'm not part of that group. When the traders buy back in I'm already part of the market capital so GUESS WHO YOU'RE CHEATING day traders NOT ME~! Those taunt threads saying "OHH YOU SHOULD HAVE SOLD" YEAH NO SHIT. NO SHIT I SHOULD HAVE SOLD. I SHOULD HAVE SOLD MOMENTS BEFORE EVERY SELL AND BOUGHT MOMENTS BEFORE EVERY BUY BUT YOU KNOW WHAT NOT EVERYBODY IS AS COOL AS YOU. You only sell in a bear market if you are a good day trader or an illusioned noob. The people inbetween hold. In a zero-sum game such as this, traders can only take your money if you sell.
> so i've had some whiskey
> actually on the bottle it's spelled whisky
> w/e
> sue me
> (but only if it's payable in BTC)
[0] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=375643.0 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=375643.0
- endisneigh 4y agoAgain, the point is about taking gains. If you bought bitcoin at 18k and watched it go to 60k and didn’t sell anything and now you’re looking at 18k again you’re a fool. Period.
- gst 4y agoThere are different approaches for that based on different assumptions and based on which risk level you prefer. My favorite strategy is the one outlined here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0 (here's a calculator for it: https://jlopp.github.io/bitcoin-savings-plan/ https://jlopp.github.io/bitcoin-savings-plan/). Basically every time the prices increases by X% sell Y% of your investment and don't touch the remaining part unless it is X% higher than the previous peak at which you sold. This ensures that you're realizing gains on the way up, but still benefit if the price continues to climb. In addition what I like about that strategy is that it takes emotions out of investing: Decide once what your parameters for the strategy are and then just strictly follow it, whatever happens. It's a lot easier to stomach a 90% price decrease if you realized a sufficient amount of gains on the way up.
- endisneigh 4y agoI realize there are different strategies, my point is never selling is a bad strategy and so HODLing is a bad strategy.
- gst 4y agoUnder certain conditions HODLing can be an ok strategy. Assuming my investments are diversified enough and Bitcoin is only a small percentage of my overall net worth, why deal with the stress of active investing and trying to time the market? I can totally understand the mindset of investing some amount today but not wanting to have to care about that investment for the next X years. Especially with the high volatility of crypto currencies.
- olalonde 4y agoFWIW there's a lot of scientific research backing the idea that HODLing is the best trading strategy for stocks[0]. It's why women tend to do better than men on the stock market (they trade less)[1]. Given that cryptocurrency is even less predictable than stocks, it'd be surprising if it didn't hold true for cryptocurrency as well. [0] A good book on the topic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Random_Walk_Down_Wall_Street https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Random_Walk_Down_Wall_Street [1] https://holdfastwealth.com/blog/why-women-make-better-investors-than-men https://holdfastwealth.com/blog/why-women-make-better-invest...
- kreetx 4y agoSounds like you should get into high frequency trading :) I.e what if it went to 100k after you sold at 60k, and then you buy in at say 70k?