In the past, a recession was defined as two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP [I think the definition has loosened somewhat recently, but I’ll ignore that]

In the past, a recession was defined as two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP [I think the definition has loosened somewhat recently, but I’ll ignore that]. Real GDP (which accounts for inflation) was up in 4Q 2021, but down 1Q 2022. Based on a somewhat arbitrarily-selected article I briefly skimmed the beginning of, Real GDP is expected to be up in 2Q. https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2022 https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-d... Of course, it always comes down to the details, which I haven’t really looked into.