5 ms·

So 10k+ outlay to save under $500/year. That would take only 20+ years to pay off. The wall units are kind of flimsy. Expect at least one to break. And that $50

So 10k+ outlay to save under $500/year. That would take only 20+ years to pay off. The wall units are kind of flimsy. Expect at least one to break. And that $500 in savings is probably $300/year in reality. Its still a great option for some places, just not really to switch over from a gas furnace.

prirun 4y ago
Seems more reasonable to compare the typical initial cost vs the increased initial cost for the higher efficiency unit that saves $500/yr. My house was built in 2000 with a regular AC unit for the main floor and heat pump for the 2nd floor, both Payne, a builder grade of Carrier. The inside coil went first, at the 9-yr mark with a 10-yr warranty, so I did get a new coil at no expense but it cost $600 to install it. A couple years later, the outside heat pump went out, and because of the system's age (about 11 years), they recommended replacing the furnace and heat pump. A couple year later, the main floor furnace exhaust gas blower mechanism went out, and again, the outside unit was replaced because it was 14 years old. In contrast, my previous house had an American Standard AC and furnace that was installed in 1970 when the house was built. I had to replace the furnace blower motor one year - about $500 I think - but the original AC and furnace were working like a champ when I sold the house in 2003. In summary, you aren't getting 20 years out of any modern, shitty system anymore. They're designed to fail after 10 years. You might get lucky and have something fail after 9 years; then you'll only have to pay for labor. But because there are 2 major independent components, the outside compressor and inside furnace, it's unlikely they'll both fail within the warranty. My AC guy told me the main reason they fail is because the new coils are made of very thin aluminum and so fail sooner than the old systems. If a coil fails, either in the furnace or the outside condenser, you're screwed. They can sometimes fix them, but good luck with that. Most HVAC dealers don't want to bother doing that; they just want to sell a new system.
hgomersall 4y ago
Which is always the problem when you ignore the negative externalities. One would hope those externalities might start to be internalised to the cost of burning fossil fuels for heat, then heat pumps might become a better prospect. (Tbh, I recently did a high level analysis of a heat pump in a temperate climate, and in light of climbing fuel bills and the potential for low price electricity from renewables at low demand plus batteries, heat pumps start to make a lot of sense. You need to think about using them differently to gas though)
- bialpio 4y ago
  I think it also ignores the fact that one of the big energy suppliers entered a war of territorial expansion and it may take a while until it's business as usual - I'd expect this to also affect energy prices.
  - hgomersall 4y ago
    Is this a US thing? Please elaborate...
    - happyopossum 4y ago
      Think it’s pretty clear he’s talking about Russia.
      - hgomersall 4y ago
        Whoops, yes! Evening responses are not my most alert time!

prirun 4y ago

Seems more reasonable to compare the typical initial cost vs the increased initial cost for the higher efficiency unit that saves $500/yr. My house was built in 2000 with a regular AC unit for the main floor and heat pump for the 2nd floor, both Payne, a builder grade of Carrier. The inside coil went first, at the 9-yr mark with a 10-yr warranty, so I did get a new coil at no expense but it cost $600 to install it. A couple years later, the outside heat pump went out, and because of the system's age (about 11 years), they recommended replacing the furnace and heat pump. A couple year later, the main floor furnace exhaust gas blower mechanism went out, and again, the outside unit was replaced because it was 14 years old. In contrast, my previous house had an American Standard AC and furnace that was installed in 1970 when the house was built. I had to replace the furnace blower motor one year - about $500 I think - but the original AC and furnace were working like a champ when I sold the house in 2003. In summary, you aren't getting 20 years out of any modern, shitty system anymore. They're designed to fail after 10 years. You might get lucky and have something fail after 9 years; then you'll only have to pay for labor. But because there are 2 major independent components, the outside compressor and inside furnace, it's unlikely they'll both fail within the warranty. My AC guy told me the main reason they fail is because the new coils are made of very thin aluminum and so fail sooner than the old systems. If a coil fails, either in the furnace or the outside condenser, you're screwed. They can sometimes fix them, but good luck with that. Most HVAC dealers don't want to bother doing that; they just want to sell a new system.

hgomersall 4y ago

Which is always the problem when you ignore the negative externalities. One would hope those externalities might start to be internalised to the cost of burning fossil fuels for heat, then heat pumps might become a better prospect. (Tbh, I recently did a high level analysis of a heat pump in a temperate climate, and in light of climbing fuel bills and the potential for low price electricity from renewables at low demand plus batteries, heat pumps start to make a lot of sense. You need to think about using them differently to gas though)

bialpio 4y ago
I think it also ignores the fact that one of the big energy suppliers entered a war of territorial expansion and it may take a while until it's business as usual - I'd expect this to also affect energy prices.
- hgomersall 4y ago
  Is this a US thing? Please elaborate...
  - happyopossum 4y ago
    Think it’s pretty clear he’s talking about Russia.
    - hgomersall 4y ago
      Whoops, yes! Evening responses are not my most alert time!