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The stock market is buttressed by businesses which have real cash flows. These days it is "quaint" to consider stock dividends, but in ye olde days they were s
by lamontcg 4y ago
The stock market is buttressed by businesses which have real cash flows.
These days it is "quaint" to consider stock dividends, but in ye olde days they were supposed to be owning part of a capital machine to turn commodities inputs into widgets, selling those widgets at a profit and giving back dividends to the stock owners. If the stock was producing dividends at $1/share then the price would have a floor at around $10/share assuming those dividends held steady.
There's no floor under crypto because the incoming cash flow from people trying to get rich entirely funds the outgoing cash flow for people who are rich or who are running for the exits. Once the pool of actual money in the system goes to zero then you have more people running for the exits than are throwing cash into the system and the price discovery rapidly goes to zero.
There is some theoretical floor because if people are throwing thousands per day into the system while people are trying to extract millions per day, then if you cut the price down by 1,000 the flows are theoretically balanced. This is the proverbial "well if bitcoin goes to $50 then I'll buy a BTC every week so there must be a price floor". But at that point the exchanges have all gone bankrupt and your $50/week won't keep the lights on, so the owners of the exchanges have fled to sandy beaches with the remaining millions, or gotten arrested, or been assassinated.
This is also why you shouldn't try shorting the market. The exchange where you place those bets on may disappear.
Of course you could short Microstrategy on the actual stock market, but I suspect those options are going to be extraordinarily expensive at this point because everyone is thinking that (and BTC is not likely to go to zero tomorrow, its likely to keep shuffling on like a zombie for months[*]).
[*] I suppose I should more accurately assert that nobody knows when it'll go to zero and the problem is timing it accurately because shorting always has a time-cost, and I certainly don't know how to do that. But it does seem to be running pretty hard into a brick wall at the moment. My statement is less of a prediction and more of a rationale of why I'm not running out to short Microstrategy right now.
- bandrami 4y agoI'd add that the rise of no-dividend no-vote shares has been troubling for exactly the same reason the rise of crypto has
- lxgr 4y agoI knew about no-vote shares, but no-dividend? How is the inherent value of those different from zero? Sentimental/collectors value?
- bandrami 4y agoIn theory you'd get a cut in a liquidation
- lamontcg 4y agoYes, the fact that the stock market is resembling crypto more and more is not the defense of crypto that some people think it is.