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> But happiness here is about the outcome. Yours might be. Happiness in general is about your personal narrative of reality. I'm happier than you are to have n

> But happiness here is about the outcome. Yours might be. Happiness in general is about your personal narrative of reality. I'm happier than you are to have not invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago, because I thought it was a bad idea then. I'm not unhappy at the fake money I didn't gain, because I have more exciting fantasies than that. Being unhappy that you didn't win a coin flip sounds like a pretty unfortunate way to structure the narrative of your life. > It's the opposite. It was bad fortune, as if he had been (according to him) more ignorant he may have invested in bitcoin (even if it was a bad decision), and he would have made a lot of money with such investment. Or they might have invested in any of the periods where it went down, or in any of the exchanges or coins that collapsed, or gotten too much money too early in their life to develop the skills necessary to make it last. The problem with romanticizing some alternative past is that it's literally just fiction. Investments are made against Expected Value. The goal is to have enough money to always be making more. Over a long time horizon, you need the probability of gain to be greater than the probability of loss, otherwise in an infinite game you will always run to 0. Engaging in gambling, as defined by Expected Value being less than Principle, is not a possible action for a rational actor interested in keeping their money forever. You're looking at Bitcoin today like the game is over, like you bought 10 years ago and sell at $20K. What is your selling thesis? What made you buy 10 years ago that allows you to sell today? Or is it more likely that you'd keep holding? What are the probabilities of gain or loss over the next 10 years? 20? All investors see is a financial instrument with no backing, facilitating services we already have, at higher cost than existing solutions.

deleted 4y ago
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redox99 4y ago
> Yours might be. Happiness in general is about your personal narrative of reality. I'm happier than you are to have not invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago, because I thought it was a bad idea then. You might be an odd one out and value things differently, but going back to what you said > Most investors are happy to not have gambled on cryptocurrency over the last 10 years. I'm sure most investors are happy if the outcome is more money, above anything else. After all that's the goal of investing. > I'm not unhappy at the fake money I didn't gain, because I have more exciting fantasies than that. Being unhappy that you didn't win a coin flip sounds like a pretty unfortunate way to structure the narrative of your life. I don't understand where this being unhappy thing comes from. I never mentioned such thing, so I don't know what you are arguing about. Also don't know what you mean by fake money. I'm talking about realized gains. > Or they might have invested in any of the periods where it went down, or in any of the exchanges or coins that collapsed, or gotten too much money too early in their life to develop the skills necessary to make it last. The problem with romanticizing some alternative past is that it's literally just fiction. The topic being discussed in the original comment is very clear: Bitcoin / Crypto in terms of price and fundamentals. Things such as "what if earning too much money too young ended up being bad?" are completely unrelated. You can make up any evil genie situation "he gets rich from crypto but he ends up being hit by a bus on his way to withdraw some cash" but such imaginary situations are besides the point. The point is that having bought bitcoin and held for a few years would have been an outstanding investment in terms of returns, even if you disagree with it's price.
- imustbeevil 4y ago
  > The point is that having bought bitcoin and held for a few years would have been an outstanding investment in terms of returns, even if you disagree with it's price. The point of the original comment was that they were happy not to invest. You disagreed. I attempted to explain how someone could be happy despite forgoing short term returns; mainly that the process by which you make those short term returns will produce long term losses.

deleted 4y ago

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redox99 4y ago

> Yours might be. Happiness in general is about your personal narrative of reality. I'm happier than you are to have not invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago, because I thought it was a bad idea then. You might be an odd one out and value things differently, but going back to what you said > Most investors are happy to not have gambled on cryptocurrency over the last 10 years. I'm sure most investors are happy if the outcome is more money, above anything else. After all that's the goal of investing. > I'm not unhappy at the fake money I didn't gain, because I have more exciting fantasies than that. Being unhappy that you didn't win a coin flip sounds like a pretty unfortunate way to structure the narrative of your life. I don't understand where this being unhappy thing comes from. I never mentioned such thing, so I don't know what you are arguing about. Also don't know what you mean by fake money. I'm talking about realized gains. > Or they might have invested in any of the periods where it went down, or in any of the exchanges or coins that collapsed, or gotten too much money too early in their life to develop the skills necessary to make it last. The problem with romanticizing some alternative past is that it's literally just fiction. The topic being discussed in the original comment is very clear: Bitcoin / Crypto in terms of price and fundamentals. Things such as "what if earning too much money too young ended up being bad?" are completely unrelated. You can make up any evil genie situation "he gets rich from crypto but he ends up being hit by a bus on his way to withdraw some cash" but such imaginary situations are besides the point. The point is that having bought bitcoin and held for a few years would have been an outstanding investment in terms of returns, even if you disagree with it's price.

imustbeevil 4y ago
> The point is that having bought bitcoin and held for a few years would have been an outstanding investment in terms of returns, even if you disagree with it's price. The point of the original comment was that they were happy not to invest. You disagreed. I attempted to explain how someone could be happy despite forgoing short term returns; mainly that the process by which you make those short term returns will produce long term losses.