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The Stock Market, S&P 500, is down 20% year-to-date (6-months). BTC is down 33% in a month. Its not even remotely comparable. YTD, its below 60%. --------

The Stock Market, S&P 500, is down 20% year-to-date (6-months). BTC is down 33% *in a month*. Its not even remotely comparable. YTD, its below 60%. -------- I got some buddies in Celsius right now. Has there ever been a circumstance in "the stock market" where you've been unable to access your funds for a week, with _NO_ contact from the CEO or an explanation of what the hell is going on? EDIT: Whatever happened to "inflation hedge" and "store of value" promises from the community by the way? No one in the stock market promised those things. But as inflation ticked up to 9%, BTC completely collapsed.

evv555 4y ago
>The Stock Market, S&P 500, is down 20% year-to-date (6-months). A more apples to apples comparison would be comparing crypto market to tech stocks. In which case yes there are valid comparisons.
- dragontamer 4y ago
  Its not very surprising that Cryptocoins would be correlated to GBTC (literally a pile of bitcoin trading as a stock), Coinbase (literally the exchange that does better when more volume happens), and TSLA (who bought a pile of BTC sometime last year). Tech companies were playing with blockchain this past year, and are now getting burned. You've got cause-and-effect backwards here.
  - evv555 4y ago
    People were making equivalent accusations of vaporware when the dot com bubble burst but 20 years later and many winners have emerged from that era in addition to new ones.
    - dragontamer 4y ago
      I lost all my paper money at that time trading Ask Jeeves. The Dot-com bubble was my "test run", when I was learning stocks, paper-trading, and getting into finance. I very much was alive during that time. If you didn't live during that time, then you wouldn't know anything of that era. Yahoo was the #1 search engine. No one cared much about Google. Amazon was a book store. Ebay was far bigger than Amazon for general purpose goods. Webvan was your hope at making the internet mainstream. Etc. etc. The biggest "internet" company was either AOL or Netscape IMO. Neither of them really the winner over the next 20 years. --------- If you lived in that era, you would know just how unlikely it was that you'd have picked Amazon or Google out of the ashes. Chances are, you would have been caught up with Enron and Worldcom's schemes, just like everyone else was.
  - kareemsabri 4y ago
    They're also correlated with other high-growth tech stocks like SNOW, TWLO, NET, DDOG, and other companies that don't have exposure to crypto. It's not necessary to engage in denial in order to trash crypto.
heartbreak 4y ago
Celsius hiring Akin Gump wasn’t explanation enough?
- dragontamer 4y ago
  You can rest assured that I appropriately warned him. I personally took the Luna/UST situation to talk to him about fake APYs, risks, and why anyone offering more than the risk-free rate (~3% US Bonds) is making some kind of risk (just as the laws of physics prove that perpetual motion doesn't exist, the laws of finance prove that risk-free rates _above_ the risk free rate are non-existent). In any case, Celsius has managed to convince a lot of people that their 10% or 20% APY stablecoins and "staking platform" was risk free. Sometimes, these people need to have their own money burned, before they believe in the potential of risk. ---------- I don't know anything about internet celebrity figures. But I do know a thing or two about risk-free rates and reasonable return rates.
  - brokenodometer 4y ago
    Akin Gump is a large law firm.
    - dragontamer 4y ago
      Oh. The timeline is messed up then. Celsius locked everyone's accounts on Monday, _BEFORE_ hiring those bankruptcy law firms. By the time you heard the news of the bankruptcy lawyers, it was already too late. Your funds were locked.
datalopers 4y ago
It’s extremely comparable. Take a time-series of VTI (all US stock index) against BTC or ETH. It’s very highly correlated since November. Crypto prices have what is called “high beta”. Very similar daily trends just a few orders of magnitude larger.
- bandrami 4y ago
  The beta is infinite since crypto has no book value
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
krzyk 4y ago
I didn't mean literally that it will move by the same amount of %. Stock markets down -> crypto down. Stock market up -> crypto up. The swings in crypto are just bigger, just like swings are bigger in stock market than in bonds.

The Stock Market, S&P 500, is down 20% year-to-date (6-months). BTC is down 33% *in a month*. Its not even remotely comparable. YTD, its below 60%. --------

evv555 4y ago

>The Stock Market, S&P 500, is down 20% year-to-date (6-months). A more apples to apples comparison would be comparing crypto market to tech stocks. In which case yes there are valid comparisons.

dragontamer 4y ago
Its not very surprising that Cryptocoins would be correlated to GBTC (literally a pile of bitcoin trading as a stock), Coinbase (literally the exchange that does better when more volume happens), and TSLA (who bought a pile of BTC sometime last year). Tech companies were playing with blockchain this past year, and are now getting burned. You've got cause-and-effect backwards here.
- evv555 4y ago
  People were making equivalent accusations of vaporware when the dot com bubble burst but 20 years later and many winners have emerged from that era in addition to new ones.
  - dragontamer 4y ago
    I lost all my paper money at that time trading Ask Jeeves. The Dot-com bubble was my "test run", when I was learning stocks, paper-trading, and getting into finance. I very much was alive during that time. If you didn't live during that time, then you wouldn't know anything of that era. Yahoo was the #1 search engine. No one cared much about Google. Amazon was a book store. Ebay was far bigger than Amazon for general purpose goods. Webvan was your hope at making the internet mainstream. Etc. etc. The biggest "internet" company was either AOL or Netscape IMO. Neither of them really the winner over the next 20 years. --------- If you lived in that era, you would know just how unlikely it was that you'd have picked Amazon or Google out of the ashes. Chances are, you would have been caught up with Enron and Worldcom's schemes, just like everyone else was.
- kareemsabri 4y ago
  They're also correlated with other high-growth tech stocks like SNOW, TWLO, NET, DDOG, and other companies that don't have exposure to crypto. It's not necessary to engage in denial in order to trash crypto.

heartbreak 4y ago

Celsius hiring Akin Gump wasn’t explanation enough?

dragontamer 4y ago
You can rest assured that I appropriately warned him. I personally took the Luna/UST situation to talk to him about fake APYs, risks, and why anyone offering more than the risk-free rate (~3% US Bonds) is making some kind of risk (just as the laws of physics prove that perpetual motion doesn't exist, the laws of finance prove that risk-free rates _above_ the risk free rate are non-existent). In any case, Celsius has managed to convince a lot of people that their 10% or 20% APY stablecoins and "staking platform" was risk free. Sometimes, these people need to have their own money burned, before they believe in the potential of risk. ---------- I don't know anything about internet celebrity figures. But I do know a thing or two about risk-free rates and reasonable return rates.
- brokenodometer 4y ago
  Akin Gump is a large law firm.
  - dragontamer 4y ago
    Oh. The timeline is messed up then. Celsius locked everyone's accounts on Monday, _BEFORE_ hiring those bankruptcy law firms. By the time you heard the news of the bankruptcy lawyers, it was already too late. Your funds were locked.

datalopers 4y ago

It’s extremely comparable. Take a time-series of VTI (all US stock index) against BTC or ETH. It’s very highly correlated since November. Crypto prices have what is called “high beta”. Very similar daily trends just a few orders of magnitude larger.

bandrami 4y ago
The beta is infinite since crypto has no book value

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

krzyk 4y ago

I didn't mean literally that it will move by the same amount of %. Stock markets down -> crypto down. Stock market up -> crypto up. The swings in crypto are just bigger, just like swings are bigger in stock market than in bonds.