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The median price of Bitcoin over the last 3 years is $20,471. That means, today, half of the people who bought in the last 3 years are down. Yes, you could hav

The median price of Bitcoin over the last 3 years is $20,471. That means, today, half of the people who bought in the last 3 years are down. Yes, you could have bought Amazon stock in 2001. But if you're trying to judge rational investment strategy, 3 years of most people losing money sounds like a pretty significant figure. For reference, the S&P (boring market index) 3 year return is +50%. https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/what%27s+the+median+price+of+bitcoin+in+the+last+3+years https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/what%27s+the+median+price... https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_3_year_return https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_3_year_return

sumy23 4y ago
When the price is higher, it’s likely more people were buying (more demand = higher prices). So if the media price is 20k, likely more than half lost money.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
redox99 4y ago
> The median price of Bitcoin over the last 3 years is $20,471. That means, today, half of the people who bought in the last 3 years are down. To be more specific there, the people that are down in that 3 year time range are only those that bought since DEC 2020 (so 1.5 years ago). But even if you ignore that, that doesn't sound bad at all. It makes no sense to compare to the SP500, of course the 500 largest companies combined are less volatile. Keep in mind something like NASDAQ 100 took like 10 to 15 years to recover after dotcom, and even QQQ isn't comparable to something as volatile as crypto. I think something like TQQQ is the most comparable, and they overlap quite a bit. But going back to what I was commenting, my point was that if I was a 10+ year investor as parent said, I would not feel fortunate about not having bought bitcoin throughout my years. Of course very recent years are different.
- imustbeevil 4y ago
  > But going back to what I was commenting, my point was that if I was a 10+ year investor as parent said, I would not feel fortunate about not having bought bitcoin throughout my years. Of course very recent years are different. That's exactly the point. Most investors are happy to not have gambled on cryptocurrency over the last 10 years. That's why their money is in USD and not Casino Chips. You're only looking at the outcome. You don't control the outcome. What you control is your methodology for your deployment of capital. If you regret not investing in Bitcoin because you've established some new thesis, then now is the time to employ that thesis. But if you regret not gambling because someone else hit 00 and got 35 to 1, that's not investing.
  - redox99 4y ago
    > Most investors are happy to not have gambled on cryptocurrency over the last 10 years. You can argue that it would have been a bad decision. Sometimes a bad decision ends in a good outcome due to luck, and a good decision ends in a bad outcome. And that doesn't make it less good or bad of a decision. But happiness here is about the outcome. I would for sure would be happy to have gambled all my money into bitcoin 10 years ago now that we know the outcome. And I'm sure people would think that way too. I would be happier to have made a (arguably) bad decision and be rich, than be "right" but non rich. So going back to what he said > Fortunately, about 10-12 years of stock market investing showed me a lot of patterns. It's the opposite. It was bad fortune, as if he had been (according to him) more ignorant he may have invested in bitcoin (even if it was a bad decision), and he would have made a lot of money with such investment.
    - imustbeevil 4y ago
      > But happiness here is about the outcome. Yours might be. Happiness in general is about your personal narrative of reality. I'm happier than you are to have not invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago, because I thought it was a bad idea then. I'm not unhappy at the fake money I didn't gain, because I have more exciting fantasies than that. Being unhappy that you didn't win a coin flip sounds like a pretty unfortunate way to structure the narrative of your life. > It's the opposite. It was bad fortune, as if he had been (according to him) more ignorant he may have invested in bitcoin (even if it was a bad decision), and he would have made a lot of money with such investment. Or they might have invested in any of the periods where it went down, or in any of the exchanges or coins that collapsed, or gotten too much money too early in their life to develop the skills necessary to make it last. The problem with romanticizing some alternative past is that it's literally just fiction. Investments are made against Expected Value. The goal is to have enough money to always be making more. Over a long time horizon, you need the probability of gain to be greater than the probability of loss, otherwise in an infinite game you will always run to 0. Engaging in gambling, as defined by Expected Value being less than Principle, is not a possible action for a rational actor interested in keeping their money forever. You're looking at Bitcoin today like the game is over, like you bought 10 years ago and sell at $20K. What is your selling thesis? What made you buy 10 years ago that allows you to sell today? Or is it more likely that you'd keep holding? What are the probabilities of gain or loss over the next 10 years? 20? All investors see is a financial instrument with no backing, facilitating services we already have, at higher cost than existing solutions.

sumy23 4y ago

When the price is higher, it’s likely more people were buying (more demand = higher prices). So if the media price is 20k, likely more than half lost money.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

redox99 4y ago

> The median price of Bitcoin over the last 3 years is $20,471. That means, today, half of the people who bought in the last 3 years are down. To be more specific there, the people that are down in that 3 year time range are only those that bought since DEC 2020 (so 1.5 years ago). But even if you ignore that, that doesn't sound bad at all. It makes no sense to compare to the SP500, of course the 500 largest companies combined are less volatile. Keep in mind something like NASDAQ 100 took like 10 to 15 years to recover after dotcom, and even QQQ isn't comparable to something as volatile as crypto. I think something like TQQQ is the most comparable, and they overlap quite a bit. But going back to what I was commenting, my point was that if I was a 10+ year investor as parent said, I would not feel fortunate about not having bought bitcoin throughout my years. Of course very recent years are different.

imustbeevil 4y ago
> But going back to what I was commenting, my point was that if I was a 10+ year investor as parent said, I would not feel fortunate about not having bought bitcoin throughout my years. Of course very recent years are different. That's exactly the point. Most investors are happy to not have gambled on cryptocurrency over the last 10 years. That's why their money is in USD and not Casino Chips. You're only looking at the outcome. You don't control the outcome. What you control is your methodology for your deployment of capital. If you regret not investing in Bitcoin because you've established some new thesis, then now is the time to employ that thesis. But if you regret not gambling because someone else hit 00 and got 35 to 1, that's not investing.
- redox99 4y ago
  > Most investors are happy to not have gambled on cryptocurrency over the last 10 years. You can argue that it would have been a bad decision. Sometimes a bad decision ends in a good outcome due to luck, and a good decision ends in a bad outcome. And that doesn't make it less good or bad of a decision. But happiness here is about the outcome. I would for sure would be happy to have gambled all my money into bitcoin 10 years ago now that we know the outcome. And I'm sure people would think that way too. I would be happier to have made a (arguably) bad decision and be rich, than be "right" but non rich. So going back to what he said > Fortunately, about 10-12 years of stock market investing showed me a lot of patterns. It's the opposite. It was bad fortune, as if he had been (according to him) more ignorant he may have invested in bitcoin (even if it was a bad decision), and he would have made a lot of money with such investment.
  - imustbeevil 4y ago
    > But happiness here is about the outcome. Yours might be. Happiness in general is about your personal narrative of reality. I'm happier than you are to have not invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago, because I thought it was a bad idea then. I'm not unhappy at the fake money I didn't gain, because I have more exciting fantasies than that. Being unhappy that you didn't win a coin flip sounds like a pretty unfortunate way to structure the narrative of your life. > It's the opposite. It was bad fortune, as if he had been (according to him) more ignorant he may have invested in bitcoin (even if it was a bad decision), and he would have made a lot of money with such investment. Or they might have invested in any of the periods where it went down, or in any of the exchanges or coins that collapsed, or gotten too much money too early in their life to develop the skills necessary to make it last. The problem with romanticizing some alternative past is that it's literally just fiction. Investments are made against Expected Value. The goal is to have enough money to always be making more. Over a long time horizon, you need the probability of gain to be greater than the probability of loss, otherwise in an infinite game you will always run to 0. Engaging in gambling, as defined by Expected Value being less than Principle, is not a possible action for a rational actor interested in keeping their money forever. You're looking at Bitcoin today like the game is over, like you bought 10 years ago and sell at $20K. What is your selling thesis? What made you buy 10 years ago that allows you to sell today? Or is it more likely that you'd keep holding? What are the probabilities of gain or loss over the next 10 years? 20? All investors see is a financial instrument with no backing, facilitating services we already have, at higher cost than existing solutions.