How does one distinguish between intelligent contrarian views and a broken clock being right once every 24 hours? How to know if your examples point to an unnec

How does one distinguish between intelligent contrarian views and a broken clock being right once every 24 hours? How to know if your examples point to an unnecessarily high failure to listen to contrarian views rather than reflecting a survivorship bias mistaking natural randomness for a problem? I don't disagree with your observations or that we have a hear no evil problem, but I'm a contrarian by nature, so I guess I'm being contrarian about contrarianism.