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I am a long-term cryptocurrency bull. I love the ideals of cryptocurrencies. To be fair, I am also very cynical about the current price of bitcoin. With that s

I am a long-term cryptocurrency bull. I love the ideals of cryptocurrencies. To be fair, I am also very cynical about the current price of bitcoin. With that said, given the glut of cryptocurrency articles on HN that have a very similar nature, I wish I could downvote this submission back to 1 point. Lower than 20k? Alright, that’s not interesting from a technical perspective. It’s also not interesting from an economic perspective because it’s very hard to have an analysis about it that we haven’t heard in recent months. And if there is such an analysis, the chances that it comes from Coindesk is very low. That is all to say: I find that this submission is flirting with going against the guidelines of this site. I don’t see how this is intellectually stimulating or interesting for anyone on HN. Also, realize that the real cryptocurrency fans (me) either: hear this through friends or check themselves. So this is not news to cryptocurrency fans either. All this is news to is to cryptocurrency neutral people and people that dislike cryptocurrencies

kossTKR 4y ago
I love the ideals of crypto. What ideals?
- tchock23 4y ago
  Everyone has a fair shot to rug pull anyone else.
  - tluyben2 4y ago
    Not everyone… all the small fish get rug pulled.
- mettamage 4y ago
  Decentralization, currency outside the government (a bit of anarchy even :) ) Again, these are ideals. They are by no means met. The reality is a sad state of affairs, mostly, IMO.
  - bcrl 4y ago
    Decentralized also means no centralized rules of law. I'm not sure we want the wealthy crypto whales running around enforcing their own idea of what laws should be. Sounds like a path towards crypto cartels acting like the drug cartels in Mexico killing anyone that wrongs them. I'll take mainstream western courts and law enforcement over that horrific future any day of the week.
- cal85 4y ago
  Many cryptocurrency proponents see it as a path to a more decentralised economy, and a way to facilitate anonymity, autonomy (giving people more control over their financial assets), stuff like that. Not saying anything about my ideals, just answering your question.
- eimrine 4y ago
  (plus to the things being told) Also immutability of storage and an ability to fork the thing and proof of being able to be anonymous for a someone nowadays.
crypt1d 4y ago
Anything negative crypto-related ends up on front page of HN. It used to bother me a bit but its become quite amusing to observe. Honestly its a meme at this point.
- schleck8 4y ago
  And I hope it continues this way until crypto evolves beyond the ponzi model. People can lose real money on these alpha-stage experiments.
  - mettamage 4y ago
    I hope it continues to evolve too! But c’mon, lower than 20k? Not newsworthy IMO, not with an attempt at a strong analysis behind (e.g. some on-chain analysis of outflows/inflows)
    - csydas 4y ago
      While I get what you're saying, it is important that it has dipped a significant amount because I think it questions the value of BTC as a store of value and it allows a lot of discussions on the level of volatility, and likely invokes a lot of emotions in people who do believe in the goals of BTC as an alternative store of money. One of my colleagues is from north Africa and worked in Europe to send money to his family and friends, investing in BTC as it was easier to handle the international transfers. This was a great use for BTC in my opinion and it helped him raise his close ones out of poverty on paper :) But with the dip, and people believing in the staying power of BTC, a lot of those funds are compromised now. They're not ruined and people are still better off than others, but there's a real concern on if it will be worth it to continue with BTC; the buy-in price is now higher than the current price by far and the total investment has devalued greatly and continuesto devalue without a lot of insight as to why or what can even be done. So I think the personal stories like this emphasize the importance of the drop, especially since 20k was a fairly signofjcakt growth point for BTC as I remember it.
      - mettamage 4y ago
stanislavb 4y ago
> Alright, that’s not interesting from a technical perspective. Alright, but HN isn't strictly about the technical perspective of things... you will find politics (sometimes!), philosophy, culture and variety of other topics that are welcomed by the community.
- mettamage 4y ago
  I know that, I tried to point that out in my comment as well, apparently I wasn’t clear enough about that. I love all kinds of topics. With that said, how is this interesting from those perspectives?
newbieuser 4y ago
it's funny that this message is downvoted here. because there are hundreds of users who agree with this message. lol
- mettamage 4y ago
  While there might be an upvote/downvote symmetry, the way I look at it is: 1 upvote: 50 people agree 1 downvote: 50 people disagree I have no data for this simple model. If I had, then it would be updated already ;-) According to my simple model, I’d venture to guess that more people disagree than agree.
bloqs 4y ago
You sort of made no point. Bitcoin falling below a certain price threshold is implicative and interesting to a lot of people. You aren't the target for this article maybe.
- mettamage 4y ago
  I may not be. Then, since I don’t see it then I genuinely wonder: what do you find interesting about it? The most interesting thing to me is how correlated it is to the S&P 500. It’s interesting in the sense that people used to say it’s an inflation hedge but it isn’t. Suddenly, we don’t see the opposite message so much (that it isn’t an inflation hedge). This shows a positivity bias and points to a certain information asymmetry. Just to point out how I believe an article with the headline of it falling below 20K could be interesting. The submission here is just a chart, not interesting. I guess this comment can be seen as showcasing some factors as to why it is below 20K :P I think that the smart money is running for the hills because the FED is performing quantitative tightening. Moreover, more and more retail traders are panic selling, realizing that it isn’t an inflation hedge (but not being vocal about it). Anyway, I’m just brainstorming. How do you find it interesting?
  - Maxious 4y ago
    20k was the December 2017 peak of the ICO craze. I guess NFTs are the new ICOs/DAOs?
  - badpun 4y ago
    > It’s interesting in the sense that people used to say it’s an inflation hedge but it isn’t. It's still a strictly speculative instrument which target (say, in 50 years) value is still unknown - may be anything, for example $1k, $100k, $0. As such, it's currently a terrible inflation hedge. Precious metals are much better for that.
    - mettamage 4y ago
      Checkout Patrick Boyle and the Plain Bagel. One of them gave convincing arguments that precious metals are not great inflation hedges. They tend to be academic yet practical about explaining financial markets.
eimrine 4y ago
> because it’s very hard to have an analysis about it that we haven’t heard in recent months. You literally have answered your own question.
Brendinooo 4y ago
I think it’s interesting
pakitan 4y ago
This particular level ($20K) is actually very interesting. Because it's the top from the previous bull run. And cryptobro TAs everywhere were parroting incessantly the mantra "Bitcoin never falls below the top from the previous bullrun". Well, oops.
- mettamage 4y ago
  Ah, so a dig at TA then? Please do elaborate :) The chart is not enough context for me.
  - pakitan 4y ago
    Not sure what would you like me to elaborate on. I'm just saying that there was widely held stupid belief that it's not possible for BTC to fall below $20K. Hence the "interestingness" of this level.
- layer8 4y ago
  “Top from the previous bull run” is still pretty arbitrary, from a random-walk perspective.
- ekianjo 4y ago
  > Because it's the top from the previous bull run. And cryptobro TAs everywhere were parroting incessantly the mantra "Bitcoin never falls below the top from the previous bullrun". Well, oops. So world events impacting the entire economy should have no effect on bitcoin whatsoever? That seems a little reductive.
  - piva00 4y ago
    According to cryptocurrency maximalists, the value of crypto should go up relative to fiat in times of uncertainty, it'd protect you from inflation, be a store of value in case of war, help transactions cross-borders and cross-sanctions, etc. All bullshit but that was the peddling going on for years, I don't think it's entirely reductive given how the cult tried to propagandise itself.

kossTKR 4y ago

I love the ideals of crypto. What ideals?

tchock23 4y ago
Everyone has a fair shot to rug pull anyone else.
- tluyben2 4y ago
  Not everyone… all the small fish get rug pulled.
mettamage 4y ago
Decentralization, currency outside the government (a bit of anarchy even :) ) Again, these are ideals. They are by no means met. The reality is a sad state of affairs, mostly, IMO.
- bcrl 4y ago
  Decentralized also means no centralized rules of law. I'm not sure we want the wealthy crypto whales running around enforcing their own idea of what laws should be. Sounds like a path towards crypto cartels acting like the drug cartels in Mexico killing anyone that wrongs them. I'll take mainstream western courts and law enforcement over that horrific future any day of the week.
cal85 4y ago
Many cryptocurrency proponents see it as a path to a more decentralised economy, and a way to facilitate anonymity, autonomy (giving people more control over their financial assets), stuff like that. Not saying anything about my ideals, just answering your question.
eimrine 4y ago
(plus to the things being told) Also immutability of storage and an ability to fork the thing and proof of being able to be anonymous for a someone nowadays.

crypt1d 4y ago

Anything negative crypto-related ends up on front page of HN. It used to bother me a bit but its become quite amusing to observe. Honestly its a meme at this point.

schleck8 4y ago
And I hope it continues this way until crypto evolves beyond the ponzi model. People can lose real money on these alpha-stage experiments.
- mettamage 4y ago
  I hope it continues to evolve too! But c’mon, lower than 20k? Not newsworthy IMO, not with an attempt at a strong analysis behind (e.g. some on-chain analysis of outflows/inflows)
  - csydas 4y ago
    While I get what you're saying, it is important that it has dipped a significant amount because I think it questions the value of BTC as a store of value and it allows a lot of discussions on the level of volatility, and likely invokes a lot of emotions in people who do believe in the goals of BTC as an alternative store of money. One of my colleagues is from north Africa and worked in Europe to send money to his family and friends, investing in BTC as it was easier to handle the international transfers. This was a great use for BTC in my opinion and it helped him raise his close ones out of poverty on paper :) But with the dip, and people believing in the staying power of BTC, a lot of those funds are compromised now. They're not ruined and people are still better off than others, but there's a real concern on if it will be worth it to continue with BTC; the buy-in price is now higher than the current price by far and the total investment has devalued greatly and continuesto devalue without a lot of insight as to why or what can even be done. So I think the personal stories like this emphasize the importance of the drop, especially since 20k was a fairly signofjcakt growth point for BTC as I remember it.
    - mettamage 4y ago

stanislavb 4y ago

> Alright, that’s not interesting from a technical perspective. Alright, but HN isn't strictly about the technical perspective of things... you will find politics (sometimes!), philosophy, culture and variety of other topics that are welcomed by the community.

mettamage 4y ago
I know that, I tried to point that out in my comment as well, apparently I wasn’t clear enough about that. I love all kinds of topics. With that said, how is this interesting from those perspectives?

newbieuser 4y ago

it's funny that this message is downvoted here. because there are hundreds of users who agree with this message. lol

mettamage 4y ago
While there might be an upvote/downvote symmetry, the way I look at it is: 1 upvote: 50 people agree 1 downvote: 50 people disagree I have no data for this simple model. If I had, then it would be updated already ;-) According to my simple model, I’d venture to guess that more people disagree than agree.

bloqs 4y ago

You sort of made no point. Bitcoin falling below a certain price threshold is implicative and interesting to a lot of people. You aren't the target for this article maybe.

mettamage 4y ago
I may not be. Then, since I don’t see it then I genuinely wonder: what do you find interesting about it? The most interesting thing to me is how correlated it is to the S&P 500. It’s interesting in the sense that people used to say it’s an inflation hedge but it isn’t. Suddenly, we don’t see the opposite message so much (that it isn’t an inflation hedge). This shows a positivity bias and points to a certain information asymmetry. Just to point out how I believe an article with the headline of it falling below 20K could be interesting. The submission here is just a chart, not interesting. I guess this comment can be seen as showcasing some factors as to why it is below 20K :P I think that the smart money is running for the hills because the FED is performing quantitative tightening. Moreover, more and more retail traders are panic selling, realizing that it isn’t an inflation hedge (but not being vocal about it). Anyway, I’m just brainstorming. How do you find it interesting?
- Maxious 4y ago
  20k was the December 2017 peak of the ICO craze. I guess NFTs are the new ICOs/DAOs?
- badpun 4y ago
  > It’s interesting in the sense that people used to say it’s an inflation hedge but it isn’t. It's still a strictly speculative instrument which target (say, in 50 years) value is still unknown - may be anything, for example $1k, $100k, $0. As such, it's currently a terrible inflation hedge. Precious metals are much better for that.
  - mettamage 4y ago
    Checkout Patrick Boyle and the Plain Bagel. One of them gave convincing arguments that precious metals are not great inflation hedges. They tend to be academic yet practical about explaining financial markets.

eimrine 4y ago

> because it’s very hard to have an analysis about it that we haven’t heard in recent months. You literally have answered your own question.

Brendinooo 4y ago

I think it’s interesting

pakitan 4y ago

This particular level ($20K) is actually very interesting. Because it's the top from the previous bull run. And cryptobro TAs everywhere were parroting incessantly the mantra "Bitcoin never falls below the top from the previous bullrun". Well, oops.

mettamage 4y ago
Ah, so a dig at TA then? Please do elaborate :) The chart is not enough context for me.
- pakitan 4y ago
  Not sure what would you like me to elaborate on. I'm just saying that there was widely held stupid belief that it's not possible for BTC to fall below $20K. Hence the "interestingness" of this level.
layer8 4y ago
“Top from the previous bull run” is still pretty arbitrary, from a random-walk perspective.
ekianjo 4y ago
> Because it's the top from the previous bull run. And cryptobro TAs everywhere were parroting incessantly the mantra "Bitcoin never falls below the top from the previous bullrun". Well, oops. So world events impacting the entire economy should have no effect on bitcoin whatsoever? That seems a little reductive.
- piva00 4y ago
  According to cryptocurrency maximalists, the value of crypto should go up relative to fiat in times of uncertainty, it'd protect you from inflation, be a store of value in case of war, help transactions cross-borders and cross-sanctions, etc. All bullshit but that was the peddling going on for years, I don't think it's entirely reductive given how the cult tried to propagandise itself.