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I was laughed at, repeatedly, on Twitter, by crypto types when I often said I was confident Bitcoin price would fall below $20k 6 months ago. It's not something

I was laughed at, repeatedly, on Twitter, by crypto types when I often said I was confident Bitcoin price would fall below $20k 6 months ago. It's not something you can really short though?

technocratius 4y ago
You can short Bitcoin on larger exchanges
- highwaylights 4y ago
  But then you’re trusting those exchanges to be able and/or willing to exit you. There’s no reliable way to short it. (Unless the exchanges let you withdraw the fiat for your positions while they’re open?)
  - dubswithus 4y ago
    So every business associated with crypto is untrustworthy? It’s hilarious that the anti bitcoiners are so anti bitcoin that it prevents them from using any of the trustworthy exchanges to short it. Exchanges make huge amounts of money in bear and bull markets.
    - highwaylights 4y ago
      > So every business associated with crypto is untrustworthy? Yes. If it's provenance is unverifiable (it is), and there's no evidence that the money being pumped into it exists (there isn't), then anything even adjacent to it is implicitly exposed to counter-party risk and therefore untrustworthy. This is without even considering the fact that there's substantial evidence to suggest that most of the money being pumped in does not exist (cough tether cough). Exchanges make money while the plates are spinning, and they make significantly less in bear markets, none of which guarantees your exit. If a bank fails it's dissolved and guaranteed deposits get first preference when administrators sift through the wreckage. If a crypto exchange even looks like it might fai.. oops boating accident. What's hilarious to me is that Saylor still gets asked on live television if he's worried about a margin call. He laughs it off and says something like "oh no, we're not close to that and very liquid" which really means "lol no I'll just say oopsie doopsie some intern lost the key". The people that lent to him are beyond belief stupid. How are you all still drinking the koolaid?
  - jcfrei 4y ago
    You can short it using CME futures. Collateral is in USD and insured by various safeguards in case counter parties cant meet margin requirements. You can short it as reliably as any other asset.
    - highwaylights 4y ago
      Strong disagree. It regularly moves wildly faster than any other commonly traded asset. There is no possible way that any margin requirement could cover it, because no-one is going to stake 90% down for 10% margin, which is what you'd need to guarantee against a crash - especially if you're putting up USD for collateral.
paulgb 4y ago
You can short miners and hodlers like Microstrategy. I’ve been at it for a while and am up a nice vacation or two out of it. https://paulbutler.org/2021/betting-against-bitcoin/ https://paulbutler.org/2021/betting-against-bitcoin/
- politelemon 4y ago
  That was a good essay, thanks
- dubswithus 4y ago
  Can’t you short using Binance or something? Or is making money using a crypto exchange unthinkable for you?
kortilla 4y ago
CME has a futures contract you can use to short. Much lower counter party risk there as well.
jacknews 4y ago
Did you also balk when the price rose to $100, $1000, $10_000, and were laughed at? Perhaps you will be laughed at again if the price goes back toward $100_000. The point is, you can be right some of the time, but it's a purely speculative market, and no-one really knows where it's going. Is bitcoin 'worth' nothing? Yes. Is it worth whatever people are prepared to pay for it, which could be millions? Also Yes.
Grimburger 4y ago
> It's not something you can really short though? It's the easiest financial instrument in the world to short? Far easier than going short on stocks. You can go long and short on 6 month futures for a tiny fee.
- synu 4y ago
  Simply give the exchanges fees to short bitcoin, and after they collapse they will pay you out.
  - mnadkvlb 4y ago
    what if the exchanges shut down ??
dubswithus 4y ago
I’ll bet you $10k USD that Bitcoin goes over 30k in the next 4 years. What does your crystal ball say about that?
- nappy-doo 4y ago
  You're writing OP, an almost perfect put. Although I have no interest in BTC, and would never take someone up on a bet like this, there's almost no upside on this bet for you.
  - dubswithus 4y ago
    I don’t make bets I can’t win. But you aren’t the first person to tell me they would 100% win this bet if only they weren’t morally opposed to gambling or something. There is no cash upfront. It’s perfect.
- SunlightEdge 4y ago
  So I'm not saying I understand what will happen with Bitcoin long term. Or else I'd be on my own big boat right now. I also wouldn't take your bet as I think bitcoin likely will go above 30k in the next 4 years. What is also likely is that the price will remain volatile - unless there's a major game changer I think this volatility will keep putting a lot of people off (with an impact on price). I have no idea what the price will be in 4 years time. My guess says under 50k. But I wouldn't be surprised if it hit 200k.
quickthrowman 4y ago
You can short Bitcoin in a variety of ways, CME offers micro BTC and BTC futures contracts which would be the safest way to short it (no counterparty risk due to the clearinghouse, and it’s cash settled so no stablecoin risk). I’m sure crypto exchanges offer ways to short BTC as well, but the exchange itself probably handles settlement, so there is counterparty risk involved (among other risks inherent in unregulated exchanges).

I was laughed at, repeatedly, on Twitter, by crypto types when I often said I was confident Bitcoin price would fall below $20k 6 months ago. It's not something you can really short though?

technocratius 4y ago

You can short Bitcoin on larger exchanges

highwaylights 4y ago
But then you’re trusting those exchanges to be able and/or willing to exit you. There’s no reliable way to short it. (Unless the exchanges let you withdraw the fiat for your positions while they’re open?)
- dubswithus 4y ago
  So every business associated with crypto is untrustworthy? It’s hilarious that the anti bitcoiners are so anti bitcoin that it prevents them from using any of the trustworthy exchanges to short it. Exchanges make huge amounts of money in bear and bull markets.
  - highwaylights 4y ago
    > So every business associated with crypto is untrustworthy? Yes. If it's provenance is unverifiable (it is), and there's no evidence that the money being pumped into it exists (there isn't), then anything even adjacent to it is implicitly exposed to counter-party risk and therefore untrustworthy. This is without even considering the fact that there's substantial evidence to suggest that most of the money being pumped in does not exist (cough tether cough). Exchanges make money while the plates are spinning, and they make significantly less in bear markets, none of which guarantees your exit. If a bank fails it's dissolved and guaranteed deposits get first preference when administrators sift through the wreckage. If a crypto exchange even looks like it might fai.. oops boating accident. What's hilarious to me is that Saylor still gets asked on live television if he's worried about a margin call. He laughs it off and says something like "oh no, we're not close to that and very liquid" which really means "lol no I'll just say oopsie doopsie some intern lost the key". The people that lent to him are beyond belief stupid. How are you all still drinking the koolaid?
- jcfrei 4y ago
  You can short it using CME futures. Collateral is in USD and insured by various safeguards in case counter parties cant meet margin requirements. You can short it as reliably as any other asset.
  - highwaylights 4y ago
    Strong disagree. It regularly moves wildly faster than any other commonly traded asset. There is no possible way that any margin requirement could cover it, because no-one is going to stake 90% down for 10% margin, which is what you'd need to guarantee against a crash - especially if you're putting up USD for collateral.

paulgb 4y ago

You can short miners and hodlers like Microstrategy. I’ve been at it for a while and am up a nice vacation or two out of it. https://paulbutler.org/2021/betting-against-bitcoin/ https://paulbutler.org/2021/betting-against-bitcoin/

politelemon 4y ago
That was a good essay, thanks
dubswithus 4y ago
Can’t you short using Binance or something? Or is making money using a crypto exchange unthinkable for you?

kortilla 4y ago

CME has a futures contract you can use to short. Much lower counter party risk there as well.

jacknews 4y ago

Did you also balk when the price rose to $100, $1000, $10_000, and were laughed at? Perhaps you will be laughed at again if the price goes back toward $100_000. The point is, you can be right some of the time, but it's a purely speculative market, and no-one really knows where it's going. Is bitcoin 'worth' nothing? Yes. Is it worth whatever people are prepared to pay for it, which could be millions? Also Yes.

Grimburger 4y ago

> It's not something you can really short though? It's the easiest financial instrument in the world to short? Far easier than going short on stocks. You can go long and short on 6 month futures for a tiny fee.

synu 4y ago
Simply give the exchanges fees to short bitcoin, and after they collapse they will pay you out.
- mnadkvlb 4y ago
  what if the exchanges shut down ??

dubswithus 4y ago

I’ll bet you $10k USD that Bitcoin goes over 30k in the next 4 years. What does your crystal ball say about that?

nappy-doo 4y ago
You're writing OP, an almost perfect put. Although I have no interest in BTC, and would never take someone up on a bet like this, there's almost no upside on this bet for you.
- dubswithus 4y ago
  I don’t make bets I can’t win. But you aren’t the first person to tell me they would 100% win this bet if only they weren’t morally opposed to gambling or something. There is no cash upfront. It’s perfect.
SunlightEdge 4y ago
So I'm not saying I understand what will happen with Bitcoin long term. Or else I'd be on my own big boat right now. I also wouldn't take your bet as I think bitcoin likely will go above 30k in the next 4 years. What is also likely is that the price will remain volatile - unless there's a major game changer I think this volatility will keep putting a lot of people off (with an impact on price). I have no idea what the price will be in 4 years time. My guess says under 50k. But I wouldn't be surprised if it hit 200k.

quickthrowman 4y ago

You can short Bitcoin in a variety of ways, CME offers micro BTC and BTC futures contracts which would be the safest way to short it (no counterparty risk due to the clearinghouse, and it’s cash settled so no stablecoin risk). I’m sure crypto exchanges offer ways to short BTC as well, but the exchange itself probably handles settlement, so there is counterparty risk involved (among other risks inherent in unregulated exchanges).