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> None of it has ever happened before during a recession We are not currently in a recession. If we get into a recession in the next quarter or two, there's n
by ryanSrich 4y ago
> None of it has ever happened before during a recession
We are not currently in a recession.
If we get into a recession in the next quarter or two, there's no harm done to crypto. The market is headed into bear territory regardless of the macro economic climate.
I swear no one remembers 2017. Thousands of projects that raised billions of dollars died. No one cares. The market rebuilds itself every 3-5 years. This is absolutely no different.
- adra 4y agoMan, I have to respect your true believer attitude about the everlasting cyclical system that has existed within a single lifetime.
- ryanSrich 4y agoI believe it until the pattern stops. No other reason to believe people won't continue to be addicted to gambling.
- Veliladon 4y agoYou are correct that people will continue to engage in stupid gambling. The problem is they're not going to have gobs of cheap money to throw into it and get leveraged 100x on which drives a lot of the speculative value.
- datadata 4y agoCheap money will come back again also, at least within 3-5 years
- tru3_power 4y agoWhat’s the argument for this? Do you think rates would drop again within 3-5 years?
- cwilkes 4y agoYes, because after correcting for irrational exuberance and the economy being in a holding pattern for 2 years all the next politician has to say is that they alone can fix the economy by lowering rates. They will then install a dummy head of the Fed that will play along.
- datadata 4y agoRolling over our current national debt at the current rates will make the debt servicing costs too high relative to tax income. So either rates cannot stay high indefinitely, or inflation will continue until debt is smaller compared to tax income. In both cases money becomes cheap. The average maturity on debt is 5 years which is where I got that time scale, but this is also in line with previous cycle lengths-- you can't find many times where the fed has waited longer to cut rates. Debt has also never been this high as a percent of GDP, so more pressure from that shouldead to faster policy changes.
- fidelramos 4y agoGreat! That means people will invest in cryptocurrency projects with good fundamentals and that deliver value, instead of the pure speculation that we've suffered until now.
- sodality2 4y agoIt has literally happened once before, that does not mean it is going to revive again. What if we're at crypto saturation and the demand won't cover another crash?
- vba616 4y agoI have no idea if it's true, but it seems like people are writing about contagion within crypto, as if it is more substantial than last time, and worrying a little bit about it affecting the rest of the economy. This game of lending crypto assets for ridiculous interest rates wasn't nearly as popular last time, was it?
- ryanSrich 4y ago> This game of lending crypto assets for ridiculous interest rates wasn't nearly as popular last time, was it? - ICOs - DAOs - NFTs - Yield - Earn - Farming etc. All of these can be ephemeral concepts within a single crypto bull cycle. Regardless of whether or not you think crypto is valuable, there's no denying people love money. So long as crypto remains unregulated there will always be bull markets imo.
- brokensegue 4y agoWe may currently be in a recession. The second quarter GDP numbers aren't out.