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None of it has ever happened before during a recession. Crypto basically didn’t exist the last time the world had one. Being religious and so sure about the way

None of it has ever happened before during a recession. Crypto basically didn’t exist the last time the world had one. Being religious and so sure about the way something is going to turn out should be a warning sign to the self.

fourstar 4y ago
So if it didn't exist how can you be so sure about dismissing it? It literally is a new paradigm. EDIT: nice to see all the luddites downvoting me. Guess the meme is true -- we still are early.
- arcticbull 4y ago
  Investment fraud is not a new paradigm. Selling bags of nothing is not a new paradigm. Goes all the way back to the South Sea Company in 1711 [1]. I recommend reading Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds published originally in 1841 [2]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Company https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Company [2] https://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary-Popular-Delusions-Madness-Crowds/dp/051788433X https://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary-Popular-Delusions-Madne...
  - mumblemumble 4y ago
    Extraordinary Popular Conclusions is also available for free from Gutenberg: https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/24518 https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/24518
  - vba616 4y ago
    I don't see it usually mentioned when people cite the South Sea Company, but their principal actual business was the slave trade. There is something about a useless or immoral business that often excites greed beyond what anything beneficial to society can.
- workingon 4y ago
  I'm not. Bitcoin could still MOON. I'm just saying you shouldn't be so sure either way with so much uncertainty.
ryanSrich 4y ago
> None of it has ever happened before during a recession We are not currently in a recession. If we get into a recession in the next quarter or two, there's no harm done to crypto. The market is headed into bear territory regardless of the macro economic climate. I swear no one remembers 2017. Thousands of projects that raised billions of dollars died. No one cares. The market rebuilds itself every 3-5 years. This is absolutely no different.
- adra 4y ago
  Man, I have to respect your true believer attitude about the everlasting cyclical system that has existed within a single lifetime.
  - ryanSrich 4y ago
    I believe it until the pattern stops. No other reason to believe people won't continue to be addicted to gambling.
    - Veliladon 4y ago
      You are correct that people will continue to engage in stupid gambling. The problem is they're not going to have gobs of cheap money to throw into it and get leveraged 100x on which drives a lot of the speculative value.
      - datadata 4y ago
        Cheap money will come back again also, at least within 3-5 years
        tru3_power 4y ago
        What’s the argument for this? Do you think rates would drop again within 3-5 years?
        4y ago
paulpauper 4y ago
crypto could go away tomorrow and the impact on the economy would be tiny to nonexistent.
- danaris 4y ago
  In and of itself, yes. But there's a real risk (far from a certainty, but a real risk) that it will cause some kind of crisis of confidence in the markets more broadly that could result in a much more catastrophic crash.
- BTCOG 4y ago
  What people are entirely missing here is the massive economic indicators flashing that are preempting this crypto stuff. The US dollar is about to be devalued and take with it, the entire global economy. We're heading into a serious depression, not just a little 2008 recession here. $9-10 gal of gas by October and double of all goods and food prices likely by Sept-October time frame. The outlook is growing very bleak.
  - Arainach 4y ago
    What do you base that claim on?
anonporridge 4y ago
> None of it has ever happened before during a recession. The 2020 Covid crash was a recession. A very short one, but also one of the most severe since the Great Depression. Bitcoin crashed from about $10,000 to $4,000 in the span of 3 weeks, before recovering and peaking at nearly $70,000. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/past-recessions.asp#toc-the-covid-19-recession-february-2020april-2020 https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/past-rece... What might be correct to say is that bitcoin has never gone through stagflation, but that's a terrifying prospect for every person and asset class.

fourstar 4y ago

So if it didn't exist how can you be so sure about dismissing it? It literally is a new paradigm. EDIT: nice to see all the luddites downvoting me. Guess the meme is true -- we still are early.

arcticbull 4y ago
Investment fraud is not a new paradigm. Selling bags of nothing is not a new paradigm. Goes all the way back to the South Sea Company in 1711 [1]. I recommend reading Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds published originally in 1841 [2]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Company https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Company [2] https://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary-Popular-Delusions-Madness-Crowds/dp/051788433X https://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary-Popular-Delusions-Madne...
- mumblemumble 4y ago
  Extraordinary Popular Conclusions is also available for free from Gutenberg: https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/24518 https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/24518
- vba616 4y ago
  I don't see it usually mentioned when people cite the South Sea Company, but their principal actual business was the slave trade. There is something about a useless or immoral business that often excites greed beyond what anything beneficial to society can.
workingon 4y ago
I'm not. Bitcoin could still MOON. I'm just saying you shouldn't be so sure either way with so much uncertainty.

ryanSrich 4y ago

> None of it has ever happened before during a recession We are not currently in a recession. If we get into a recession in the next quarter or two, there's no harm done to crypto. The market is headed into bear territory regardless of the macro economic climate. I swear no one remembers 2017. Thousands of projects that raised billions of dollars died. No one cares. The market rebuilds itself every 3-5 years. This is absolutely no different.

adra 4y ago
Man, I have to respect your true believer attitude about the everlasting cyclical system that has existed within a single lifetime.
- ryanSrich 4y ago
  I believe it until the pattern stops. No other reason to believe people won't continue to be addicted to gambling.
  - Veliladon 4y ago
    You are correct that people will continue to engage in stupid gambling. The problem is they're not going to have gobs of cheap money to throw into it and get leveraged 100x on which drives a lot of the speculative value.
    - datadata 4y ago
      Cheap money will come back again also, at least within 3-5 years
      - tru3_power 4y ago
        What’s the argument for this? Do you think rates would drop again within 3-5 years?
        4y ago

paulpauper 4y ago

crypto could go away tomorrow and the impact on the economy would be tiny to nonexistent.

danaris 4y ago
In and of itself, yes. But there's a real risk (far from a certainty, but a real risk) that it will cause some kind of crisis of confidence in the markets more broadly that could result in a much more catastrophic crash.
BTCOG 4y ago
What people are entirely missing here is the massive economic indicators flashing that are preempting this crypto stuff. The US dollar is about to be devalued and take with it, the entire global economy. We're heading into a serious depression, not just a little 2008 recession here. $9-10 gal of gas by October and double of all goods and food prices likely by Sept-October time frame. The outlook is growing very bleak.
- Arainach 4y ago
  What do you base that claim on?

anonporridge 4y ago

> None of it has ever happened before during a recession. The 2020 Covid crash was a recession. A very short one, but also one of the most severe since the Great Depression. Bitcoin crashed from about $10,000 to $4,000 in the span of 3 weeks, before recovering and peaking at nearly $70,000. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/past-recessions.asp#toc-the-covid-19-recession-february-2020april-2020 https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/past-rece... What might be correct to say is that bitcoin has never gone through stagflation, but that's a terrifying prospect for every person and asset class.