5 ms·

Are we finally allowed to use the Tulip bulb analogy?

by mmastrac 4y ago

saalweachter 4y ago
Not until people begin cooking and eating their crypto.
- woodruffw 4y ago
  My understanding of Dutch history (which isn't great) is that nobody ate tulip bulbs after the Tulip Mania ended. The famous instance of that occurring (to my knowledge) was during and immediately after WWII.
  - the_third_wave 4y ago
    To be more precise, some Dutch from above the rivers (i.e. to the north of the "Waal" and "Nederrijn" rivers which divided the liberated south from the still occupied northern half of the country), especially the western part ate boiled tulip bulbs during the "hongerwinter" [1] (hunger-winter) of 1944-1945 when the Germans blocked food imports to that region in retaliation for the Dutch efforts (e.g. the national railway strike) to assist the allies in the liberation efforts. The effects of the famine are still visible in the generation which grew up during that period and those which came after [2]. Source: I'm Dutch, my parents lived in this region and had their share of tulip bulbs. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_famine_of_1944%E2%80%931945 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_famine_of_1944%E2%80%931... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_famine_of_1944%E2%80%931945#Legacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_famine_of_1944%E2%80%931...
    - woodruffw 4y ago
      Thanks for elaborating!
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
1970-01-01 4y ago
Still 6 orders of magnitude away, I'm afraid. 1 BTC = 20k USD When 1 BTC = 0.009 USD, go ahead.
bee_rider 4y ago
I don't really know economics, but I believe they are quite different -- cryptocurrencies value is 100% speculative. Tulips at least have an inherent value as a decorative object. Even fiat currency can be used as toiletpaper in a pinch.
- el-salvador 4y ago
  > Even fiat currency can be used as toiletpaper in a pinch Even as origami sculptures, like the Venezuelan bolivar: https://www.vozdeamerica.com/a/figuras-de-origami-hechas-con-bolivares-se-venden-en-bogota/5212614.html https://www.vozdeamerica.com/a/figuras-de-origami-hechas-con... That 4 meter long cobra origami figure looks so cool (check picture 4).
  - egypturnash 4y ago
    Damn, that’s some astounding modular origami work.
- giaour 4y ago
  Given how many hands your average bill has passed through, that sounds extremely unhygienic. I'd rather use a tulip!
- kareemsabri 4y ago
  I think it's difficult to call something 100% speculative or 100% not. Some individuals may buy something for speculation, while others may desire the utility. You can speculate on the price of soy beans (many do), but people also buy soy beans to use. There are individuals who get some utility out of bitcoin (international money transfers etc.)
  - melenaboija 4y ago
    > There are individuals who get some utility out of bitcoin (international money transfers etc.) What do you mean with money transfers?
it_citizen 4y ago
It might help propagate a story that did not really happen the way people think it happened: > Research into tulip mania since then, especially by proponents of the efficient-market hypothesis,[17] suggests that his story was incomplete and inaccurate. In her 2007 scholarly analysis Tulipmania, Anne Goldgar states that the phenomenon was limited to "a fairly small group", and that most accounts from the period "are based on one or two contemporary pieces of propaganda and a prodigious amount of plagiarism".[11] Peter Garber argues that the trade in common bulbs "was no more than a meaningless winter drinking game, played by a plague-ridden population that made use of the vibrant tulip market." Source: Wikipedia - tulip mania
- turzmo 4y ago
  "was no more than a meaningless winter drinking game, played by a plague-ridden population that made use of the vibrant tulip market." Exaggerated or not, I think we can still use this line!
- bombcar 4y ago
  The South Sea companies are a much better, and more documented example.
aaaaaaaaata 4y ago
In 8 months, revisit.
gcbafaksjdfj 4y ago
watch the "extra credit history" 5+ episodes about it. You will be shocked how wrong we all are about the tulip thing.
ArtWomb 4y ago
Tulip analogies are always apt & forever welcome. But looking at those ancient Dutch trading charts, there appears to be a single 99% crash, that occured in a single trading session I believe. BTCUSD has collapsed 70%+ at least 7 times. It's global. There's always a new pool of money coming new. And tulip bulbs are really only good for one thing. Extremely perishable, fungible, analog and centralized stores of value ;)
- FabHK 4y ago
  > There's always a new pool of money coming new. FTFY: There's always been a new pool of money coming in, so far.
berberous 4y ago
Whatever your view on the Tulip bulb analogy, that has no relevance to this story. This is a story of traders with bad risk management who blew themselves up with leverage. That is a story that has played out plenty of times in the past on every other type of asset (housing, stocks, FX) as well.
flarex 4y ago
People have been using the Tulip bulb analogy for 12 years. What's stopping most people at this point is they understand the analogy doesn't fit.

Are we finally allowed to use the Tulip bulb analogy?

saalweachter 4y ago

Not until people begin cooking and eating their crypto.

woodruffw 4y ago
My understanding of Dutch history (which isn't great) is that nobody ate tulip bulbs after the Tulip Mania ended. The famous instance of that occurring (to my knowledge) was during and immediately after WWII.
- the_third_wave 4y ago
  To be more precise, some Dutch from above the rivers (i.e. to the north of the "Waal" and "Nederrijn" rivers which divided the liberated south from the still occupied northern half of the country), especially the western part ate boiled tulip bulbs during the "hongerwinter" [1] (hunger-winter) of 1944-1945 when the Germans blocked food imports to that region in retaliation for the Dutch efforts (e.g. the national railway strike) to assist the allies in the liberation efforts. The effects of the famine are still visible in the generation which grew up during that period and those which came after [2]. Source: I'm Dutch, my parents lived in this region and had their share of tulip bulbs. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_famine_of_1944%E2%80%931945 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_famine_of_1944%E2%80%931... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_famine_of_1944%E2%80%931945#Legacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_famine_of_1944%E2%80%931...
  - woodruffw 4y ago
    Thanks for elaborating!

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

1970-01-01 4y ago

Still 6 orders of magnitude away, I'm afraid. 1 BTC = 20k USD When 1 BTC = 0.009 USD, go ahead.

bee_rider 4y ago

I don't really know economics, but I believe they are quite different -- cryptocurrencies value is 100% speculative. Tulips at least have an inherent value as a decorative object. Even fiat currency can be used as toiletpaper in a pinch.

el-salvador 4y ago
> Even fiat currency can be used as toiletpaper in a pinch Even as origami sculptures, like the Venezuelan bolivar: https://www.vozdeamerica.com/a/figuras-de-origami-hechas-con-bolivares-se-venden-en-bogota/5212614.html https://www.vozdeamerica.com/a/figuras-de-origami-hechas-con... That 4 meter long cobra origami figure looks so cool (check picture 4).
- egypturnash 4y ago
  Damn, that’s some astounding modular origami work.
giaour 4y ago
Given how many hands your average bill has passed through, that sounds extremely unhygienic. I'd rather use a tulip!
kareemsabri 4y ago
I think it's difficult to call something 100% speculative or 100% not. Some individuals may buy something for speculation, while others may desire the utility. You can speculate on the price of soy beans (many do), but people also buy soy beans to use. There are individuals who get some utility out of bitcoin (international money transfers etc.)
- melenaboija 4y ago
  > There are individuals who get some utility out of bitcoin (international money transfers etc.) What do you mean with money transfers?

it_citizen 4y ago

It might help propagate a story that did not really happen the way people think it happened: > Research into tulip mania since then, especially by proponents of the efficient-market hypothesis,[17] suggests that his story was incomplete and inaccurate. In her 2007 scholarly analysis Tulipmania, Anne Goldgar states that the phenomenon was limited to "a fairly small group", and that most accounts from the period "are based on one or two contemporary pieces of propaganda and a prodigious amount of plagiarism".[11] Peter Garber argues that the trade in common bulbs "was no more than a meaningless winter drinking game, played by a plague-ridden population that made use of the vibrant tulip market." Source: Wikipedia - tulip mania

turzmo 4y ago
"was no more than a meaningless winter drinking game, played by a plague-ridden population that made use of the vibrant tulip market." Exaggerated or not, I think we can still use this line!
bombcar 4y ago
The South Sea companies are a much better, and more documented example.

aaaaaaaaata 4y ago

In 8 months, revisit.

gcbafaksjdfj 4y ago

watch the "extra credit history" 5+ episodes about it. You will be shocked how wrong we all are about the tulip thing.

ArtWomb 4y ago

Tulip analogies are always apt & forever welcome. But looking at those ancient Dutch trading charts, there appears to be a single 99% crash, that occured in a single trading session I believe. BTCUSD has collapsed 70%+ at least 7 times. It's global. There's always a new pool of money coming new. And tulip bulbs are really only good for one thing. Extremely perishable, fungible, analog and centralized stores of value ;)

FabHK 4y ago
> There's always a new pool of money coming new. FTFY: There's always been a new pool of money coming in, so far.

berberous 4y ago

Whatever your view on the Tulip bulb analogy, that has no relevance to this story. This is a story of traders with bad risk management who blew themselves up with leverage. That is a story that has played out plenty of times in the past on every other type of asset (housing, stocks, FX) as well.

flarex 4y ago

People have been using the Tulip bulb analogy for 12 years. What's stopping most people at this point is they understand the analogy doesn't fit.