> You can't "predict" that something will cyclical will happen on some indeterminate timeline It was in plain sight as early as one year ago. The fed itself ha

> You can't "predict" that something will cyclical will happen on some indeterminate timeline It was in plain sight as early as one year ago. The fed itself had signalled exactly one year ago (coincidentally) that they are preparing to tighten money supply in 2023 [1]. Of course they didn't anticipate Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing supply shortage. But as far as cycles go it was clearly expected. Also, it was obvious if one had paid attention the fed rate history [2]. Interest rates were on the rise until COVID struck forcing both fed and treasury to increase money supply to prevent hardship to the people. Also, back in Nov 2021 fed had slowed down money infusion by reducing MBS purchase speed. People don't realise the extent to which 2008 GFC continues to reverberate. 2010s were truly exceptional years where interest rates were kept artificially low and fed kept printing money through QE (e.g., MBS purchase [3]). It would be really absurd to expect fed to have kept creating money and as the last decade drew to an end something had to give just that COVID postponed the day of the reckoning. Make no mistake 2020s are going to be really harsh money supply wise; a generation of people are going to experience what tight money supply feels like. [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/6/16/federal-reserve-raises-inflation-expectations-mulls-2023-liftoff https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/6/16/federal-reserve-... [2] https://imgur.com/a/np0FkyQ https://imgur.com/a/np0FkyQ [3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TMBACBW027SBOG https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TMBACBW027SBOG