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> Everyone and their mother knew that printing money since 2008 was going to blow up one day. You can't "predict" that something will cyclical will happen on s

> Everyone and their mother knew that printing money since 2008 was going to blow up one day. You can't "predict" that something will cyclical will happen on some indeterminate timeline then claim success when it eventually does. Impactful actions have pretty immediate results. So if you "predicted" that the actions of 09-10 to have an effect, if effect didn't happen by like 2012, your prediction was wrong. The economy is way too complicated to predict out more than a few years because it's constantly undergoing major shifts and changes. Inflation is being experienced globally, even in regions with little/no economic ties to the USA. And the USA is experiencing less inflation than in many other countries. This suggests that the underlying cause is external to the USA and whatever actions Americans are taking in response is more effective than what other countries are doing.

nemo44x 4y ago
> Inflation is being experienced globally, even in regions with little/no economic ties to the USA. Oil is priced in USD.
- mc32 4y ago
  Most oil, but some oil is now being priced in Rubles (and being source-washed thru India). But the Ruble has been appreciating as well...
- robocat 4y ago
  Oil was a similar price from 2007 to 2013. What is your point?
vishnugupta 4y ago
> You can't "predict" that something will cyclical will happen on some indeterminate timeline It was in plain sight as early as one year ago. The fed itself had signalled exactly one year ago (coincidentally) that they are preparing to tighten money supply in 2023 [1]. Of course they didn't anticipate Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing supply shortage. But as far as cycles go it was clearly expected. Also, it was obvious if one had paid attention the fed rate history [2]. Interest rates were on the rise until COVID struck forcing both fed and treasury to increase money supply to prevent hardship to the people. Also, back in Nov 2021 fed had slowed down money infusion by reducing MBS purchase speed. People don't realise the extent to which 2008 GFC continues to reverberate. 2010s were truly exceptional years where interest rates were kept artificially low and fed kept printing money through QE (e.g., MBS purchase [3]). It would be really absurd to expect fed to have kept creating money and as the last decade drew to an end something had to give just that COVID postponed the day of the reckoning. Make no mistake 2020s are going to be really harsh money supply wise; a generation of people are going to experience what tight money supply feels like. [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/6/16/federal-reserve-raises-inflation-expectations-mulls-2023-liftoff https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/6/16/federal-reserve-... [2] https://imgur.com/a/np0FkyQ https://imgur.com/a/np0FkyQ [3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TMBACBW027SBOG https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TMBACBW027SBOG

nemo44x 4y ago

> Inflation is being experienced globally, even in regions with little/no economic ties to the USA. Oil is priced in USD.

mc32 4y ago
Most oil, but some oil is now being priced in Rubles (and being source-washed thru India). But the Ruble has been appreciating as well...
robocat 4y ago
Oil was a similar price from 2007 to 2013. What is your point?

vishnugupta 4y ago

> You can't "predict" that something will cyclical will happen on some indeterminate timeline It was in plain sight as early as one year ago. The fed itself had signalled exactly one year ago (coincidentally) that they are preparing to tighten money supply in 2023 [1]. Of course they didn't anticipate Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing supply shortage. But as far as cycles go it was clearly expected. Also, it was obvious if one had paid attention the fed rate history [2]. Interest rates were on the rise until COVID struck forcing both fed and treasury to increase money supply to prevent hardship to the people. Also, back in Nov 2021 fed had slowed down money infusion by reducing MBS purchase speed. People don't realise the extent to which 2008 GFC continues to reverberate. 2010s were truly exceptional years where interest rates were kept artificially low and fed kept printing money through QE (e.g., MBS purchase [3]). It would be really absurd to expect fed to have kept creating money and as the last decade drew to an end something had to give just that COVID postponed the day of the reckoning. Make no mistake 2020s are going to be really harsh money supply wise; a generation of people are going to experience what tight money supply feels like. [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/6/16/federal-reserve-raises-inflation-expectations-mulls-2023-liftoff https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/6/16/federal-reserve-... [2] https://imgur.com/a/np0FkyQ https://imgur.com/a/np0FkyQ [3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TMBACBW027SBOG https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TMBACBW027SBOG