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>“We’re going to launch lots of tiny spacecraft into interstellar space, have them discover alien intelligence, then bring back its technology to advance human

>“We’re going to launch lots of tiny spacecraft into interstellar space, have them discover alien intelligence, then bring back its technology to advance human technology by a million years” Who exactly is making this pitch he's refuting? It sounds like Breakthrough Starshot but that project doesn't make a claim of "advancing human technology by a million years." This is how BSS bills its own mission: "Breakthrough Starshot aims to demonstrate proof of concept for ultra-fast light-driven nanocrafts, and lay the foundations for a first launch to Alpha Centauri within the next generation. Along the way, the project could generate important supplementary benefits to astronomy, including solar system exploration and detection of Earth-crossing asteroids."

pintxo 4y ago
Having read the „three body“ series I wonder if there is an actual debate about the dark forest theory? Or: Should we announce our existence and location to the universe?
- TheBlight 4y ago
  The cat is likely already out of the bag assuming contemporaneous advanced ETI is looking for other intelligence in our corner of the galaxy.
- giantrobot 4y ago
  The dark forest is the dumbest concept. Nature advertised our presence a long time ago. Any aliens with a telescope able to gather spectra of Earth would be able to determine with a reasonable certainty life exists here. Any aliens with such a telescope within about 200 light years would be able to say with a reasonable certainly a technological civilization lives here, with that certainty increasing the longer they conduct observations. Before the Industrial Revolution Earth was teeming with biomarkers. After the IR we not only have biomarkers but increasing industrial pollutants in the atmosphere. Such markers are interesting because they are short lived and need replenishment. It's the same reason we look for them. The sphere advertising the Industrial Revolution is ever expanding. Anyone that can gather spectra of Earth will see it once the light reaches them. So there's no hiding from any aliens that happen to be looking. But the dark forest theory gets more absurd with the idea that some alien species upon seeing a technological civilization on Earth is them going to hope in their spaceships for a visit. Ignoring entirely that space is fucking huge and physics is unforgiving. Some alien species that had the capability to fly the obscene distance to Earth would by definition have the capability to fully exploit all the resources in their own solar system (which is gigantic). They could also save themselves the effort of an invasion by exploiting uninhabited solar systems much closer to them (also gigantic). For as awesome as Earth is, it doesn't have any unobtainium some hyper advanced species couldn't find elsewhere. Any aliens with the capability of visiting us already has the capability to detect us. We can't go un-advertise ourselves.
  - GWBullshit 4y ago
    What if they don't "hop on" and "visit"? For example, humans seem to be at a point where corporations are trying to automate everything - what if some alien civilization figured out automation was the way to go as far as colonization and what if they figured this out say, 20 million years ago and so didn't care if it took a million or 2 or 5 million years to "get here" via some automation that is beyond our ability as humans to perceive?
    - adastra22 4y ago
      Then by even some very conservative assumptions they could extract all the obtainable resources of the entire galaxy within a few tens of millions of years. We should expect to see nothing--not stars, not galaxies. Nothing but a soft infrared background radiation from the back side of Dyson swarms.
      - plutonorm 4y ago
        Dark matter. I know we don't see it in infrared, but maybe there is a way to block even that with some physics we do not understand.
        adastra22 4y ago
        Doesn’t work out. Beyond the already mentioned fact that true zero emissions is physically impossible, dark matter is seemingly spread throughout the cosmos, not clumped together where light matter isn’t. If this were the solution they would take over an entire two thirds of the galaxy, not diffusely consume two thirds equally across all space and time.
      - GWBullshit 4y ago
        Why? You're ASSUMING such an alien civilization's goals would be in line with countless strategy games. What if millions of years of advancement wound up leading to very, very different goals for colonization than what we're used to based on pretty much nothing else other than fairly recent (by comparison) human history? What if, for example, if you're a civilization that's been around for millions of years, your goals are no longer to "extract base resources" like in "Starcraft" ... but rather to play a sort of "Sims" game where you guide the development of life on various planets and "extract" research data – or simply sit back and enjoy the show? Or what if they have an advanced Ai they're testing and want to see if life on colonized planets turned out like the Ai said it would, and if so – to what extent? In that case, the "resource to be extracted" wouldn't be physical as much as knowledge and possible entertainment.
- Balgair 4y ago
  A quick reminder about our current knowledge of the universe's composition: ~5% of the universe is made out of the stuff we're made of. Sugar cubes, ice, doll houses, lithium, etc. Most of that is burning hydrogen and helium down in stars. ~20% of the universe if made out of dark matter. We know little about dark matter except that it, well, falls down. ~75% of the universe is dark energy. We know almost nothing about dark energy except that it falls up ... maybe? Whatever million+ year old civilizations may exist have probably figured out something more about the other 95% of the universe that we know is there. Let alone all the other stuff we'll finally be detecting by the year 5001. Even if we do decide to announce ourselves, devil may care, what are the odds that anyone out there would even be made of the stuff that could listen to us? It's not that we're in a dark forest or at a crowded dinner, it's that we're anemones talking about the other side of the tide pool.

pintxo 4y ago

Having read the „three body“ series I wonder if there is an actual debate about the dark forest theory? Or: Should we announce our existence and location to the universe?

TheBlight 4y ago
The cat is likely already out of the bag assuming contemporaneous advanced ETI is looking for other intelligence in our corner of the galaxy.
giantrobot 4y ago
The dark forest is the dumbest concept. Nature advertised our presence a long time ago. Any aliens with a telescope able to gather spectra of Earth would be able to determine with a reasonable certainty life exists here. Any aliens with such a telescope within about 200 light years would be able to say with a reasonable certainly a technological civilization lives here, with that certainty increasing the longer they conduct observations. Before the Industrial Revolution Earth was teeming with biomarkers. After the IR we not only have biomarkers but increasing industrial pollutants in the atmosphere. Such markers are interesting because they are short lived and need replenishment. It's the same reason we look for them. The sphere advertising the Industrial Revolution is ever expanding. Anyone that can gather spectra of Earth will see it once the light reaches them. So there's no hiding from any aliens that happen to be looking. But the dark forest theory gets more absurd with the idea that some alien species upon seeing a technological civilization on Earth is them going to hope in their spaceships for a visit. Ignoring entirely that space is fucking huge and physics is unforgiving. Some alien species that had the capability to fly the obscene distance to Earth would by definition have the capability to fully exploit all the resources in their own solar system (which is gigantic). They could also save themselves the effort of an invasion by exploiting uninhabited solar systems much closer to them (also gigantic). For as awesome as Earth is, it doesn't have any unobtainium some hyper advanced species couldn't find elsewhere. Any aliens with the capability of visiting us already has the capability to detect us. We can't go un-advertise ourselves.
- GWBullshit 4y ago
  What if they don't "hop on" and "visit"? For example, humans seem to be at a point where corporations are trying to automate everything - what if some alien civilization figured out automation was the way to go as far as colonization and what if they figured this out say, 20 million years ago and so didn't care if it took a million or 2 or 5 million years to "get here" via some automation that is beyond our ability as humans to perceive?
  - adastra22 4y ago
    Then by even some very conservative assumptions they could extract all the obtainable resources of the entire galaxy within a few tens of millions of years. We should expect to see nothing--not stars, not galaxies. Nothing but a soft infrared background radiation from the back side of Dyson swarms.
    - plutonorm 4y ago
      Dark matter. I know we don't see it in infrared, but maybe there is a way to block even that with some physics we do not understand.
      - adastra22 4y ago
        Doesn’t work out. Beyond the already mentioned fact that true zero emissions is physically impossible, dark matter is seemingly spread throughout the cosmos, not clumped together where light matter isn’t. If this were the solution they would take over an entire two thirds of the galaxy, not diffusely consume two thirds equally across all space and time.
    - GWBullshit 4y ago
      Why? You're ASSUMING such an alien civilization's goals would be in line with countless strategy games. What if millions of years of advancement wound up leading to very, very different goals for colonization than what we're used to based on pretty much nothing else other than fairly recent (by comparison) human history? What if, for example, if you're a civilization that's been around for millions of years, your goals are no longer to "extract base resources" like in "Starcraft" ... but rather to play a sort of "Sims" game where you guide the development of life on various planets and "extract" research data – or simply sit back and enjoy the show? Or what if they have an advanced Ai they're testing and want to see if life on colonized planets turned out like the Ai said it would, and if so – to what extent? In that case, the "resource to be extracted" wouldn't be physical as much as knowledge and possible entertainment.
Balgair 4y ago
A quick reminder about our current knowledge of the universe's composition: ~5% of the universe is made out of the stuff we're made of. Sugar cubes, ice, doll houses, lithium, etc. Most of that is burning hydrogen and helium down in stars. ~20% of the universe if made out of dark matter. We know little about dark matter except that it, well, falls down. ~75% of the universe is dark energy. We know almost nothing about dark energy except that it falls up ... maybe? Whatever million+ year old civilizations may exist have probably figured out something more about the other 95% of the universe that we know is there. Let alone all the other stuff we'll finally be detecting by the year 5001. Even if we do decide to announce ourselves, devil may care, what are the odds that anyone out there would even be made of the stuff that could listen to us? It's not that we're in a dark forest or at a crowded dinner, it's that we're anemones talking about the other side of the tide pool.