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Is this mostly caused by people coming to grips with the fact that "crypto" is entirely speculative with no actual value? "TradFi" at least has a real floor be

Is this mostly caused by people coming to grips with the fact that "crypto" is entirely speculative with no actual value? "TradFi" at least has a real floor because "real" money (as in: currency that can be exchanged for goods and services) and "real" investments (as in: shares of companies that provide goods/services) do actually exist. Even if significant portions of the market are driven by speculation. Are we reaching the point where people trading crypto get bored and just... stop?

clpm4j 4y ago
As long as people have a way to potentially get rich with little to no 'real work', they won't stop.
- shuntress 4y ago
  Sure. Speculation certainly will continue and real money will continue to change hands. But are we at least done pretending that crypto currency (at least, as it exists now) will ever have any practical purpose beyond being a fungible entity upon which gamblers speculate?
  - yata69420 4y ago
    > But are we at least done pretending that crypto currency (at least, as it exists now) will ever have any practical purpose beyond being a fungible entity upon which gamblers speculate? No, I don't think that's happened yet. I still know tons of people excited to build for "web3". I don't think we need "rich" websites with javascript, "smart" phones in everyone's pocket, or "social media" at all. But those all happened, and it seems to be a lot of the same vibe for "web3" builders right now.
    - shuntress 4y ago
      It's difficult to get a clear picture of what exactly people think "web3" is. My general experience is that people who are caught up in web3 hype seem to actually just want simpler self-hosted/distributed resource redundancy.
mirntyfirty 4y ago
To me it seems that way. With the bond market being so low, it seemed as though there was a lot of cash looking for some sort of outlet. All that was necessary was misleading hype and marketing.
CapmCrackaWaka 4y ago
The physicality of an underlying asset isn’t what makes people trade stocks, commodities, options or anything else. If you’re day trading soybean futures, it’s not the ideal of soybeans that wakes you up in the morning. It’s the money you could make. Bitcoin is a unique speculative asset because it’s value is based entirely on human interest, nothing else. I think crypto is here to stay as a speculative asset class. Where it’s long term price goes, I have no idea.
- vorpalhex 4y ago
  The physicality of the underlying asset does matter though. Soybeans in and of themselves have some fundamental value (food, feed) the same way oil does (fuel, plastics, etc). There is no underlying value in having answers to a random cryptographic problem attested to you.
  - CapmCrackaWaka 4y ago
    Soybeans (and most other assets) have inherent value which gives them a price minimum, but not necessarily a price maximum. Crypto has no price minimum (0 I guess, at which point returns are incalculable) and no price maximum because it has no inherent value. My entire point is that crypto is a unique asset class, so I think it’s here to stay as long as there are people willing to speculate.
- shuntress 4y ago
  Soybeans exist and people consume them. Obviously you can speculate on whether the price of soy beans will go up or down but they will always (excluding, of course, obviously unreasonable scenarios) have some value because the soybeans themselves have some value. The producers and consumers of soybeans are extremely likely to continue producing and consuming soybeans even if no one speculates on the value of soybeans. This is the "physicality" or "human interest" in soybeans. Why would crypto be "here to stay" when there is zero use for it besides speculation?
  - CapmCrackaWaka 4y ago
lizknope 4y ago
Those "shares in companies" or stock makes you part owner. As part owner you may get a share of the profits in the form of dividends and voting rights. When you buy stock in a company whether is in during an IPO or new issue of stock that money is used to hire employees or build a new factory and make even more profit. That can increase your dividend and make the stock go higher. The same thing can happen when you buy the stock on the open market but the connection isn't as direct. Companies with good stock performance are able to attract better employees which will increase their profits which benefits the stock holder. None of this happens when you buy bitcoin or ethereum. Some crypto exchanges make up their own crypto currency and offer high interest rates on those but as we are seeing most of those are turning out to be scams.

clpm4j 4y ago

As long as people have a way to potentially get rich with little to no 'real work', they won't stop.

shuntress 4y ago
Sure. Speculation certainly will continue and real money will continue to change hands. But are we at least done pretending that crypto currency (at least, as it exists now) will ever have any practical purpose beyond being a fungible entity upon which gamblers speculate?
- yata69420 4y ago
  > But are we at least done pretending that crypto currency (at least, as it exists now) will ever have any practical purpose beyond being a fungible entity upon which gamblers speculate? No, I don't think that's happened yet. I still know tons of people excited to build for "web3". I don't think we need "rich" websites with javascript, "smart" phones in everyone's pocket, or "social media" at all. But those all happened, and it seems to be a lot of the same vibe for "web3" builders right now.
  - shuntress 4y ago
    It's difficult to get a clear picture of what exactly people think "web3" is. My general experience is that people who are caught up in web3 hype seem to actually just want simpler self-hosted/distributed resource redundancy.

mirntyfirty 4y ago

To me it seems that way. With the bond market being so low, it seemed as though there was a lot of cash looking for some sort of outlet. All that was necessary was misleading hype and marketing.

CapmCrackaWaka 4y ago

The physicality of an underlying asset isn’t what makes people trade stocks, commodities, options or anything else. If you’re day trading soybean futures, it’s not the ideal of soybeans that wakes you up in the morning. It’s the money you could make. Bitcoin is a unique speculative asset because it’s value is based entirely on human interest, nothing else. I think crypto is here to stay as a speculative asset class. Where it’s long term price goes, I have no idea.

vorpalhex 4y ago
The physicality of the underlying asset does matter though. Soybeans in and of themselves have some fundamental value (food, feed) the same way oil does (fuel, plastics, etc). There is no underlying value in having answers to a random cryptographic problem attested to you.
- CapmCrackaWaka 4y ago
  Soybeans (and most other assets) have inherent value which gives them a price minimum, but not necessarily a price maximum. Crypto has no price minimum (0 I guess, at which point returns are incalculable) and no price maximum because it has no inherent value. My entire point is that crypto is a unique asset class, so I think it’s here to stay as long as there are people willing to speculate.
shuntress 4y ago
Soybeans exist and people consume them. Obviously you can speculate on whether the price of soy beans will go up or down but they will always (excluding, of course, obviously unreasonable scenarios) have some value because the soybeans themselves have some value. The producers and consumers of soybeans are extremely likely to continue producing and consuming soybeans even if no one speculates on the value of soybeans. This is the "physicality" or "human interest" in soybeans. Why would crypto be "here to stay" when there is zero use for it besides speculation?
- CapmCrackaWaka 4y ago

lizknope 4y ago

Those "shares in companies" or stock makes you part owner. As part owner you may get a share of the profits in the form of dividends and voting rights. When you buy stock in a company whether is in during an IPO or new issue of stock that money is used to hire employees or build a new factory and make even more profit. That can increase your dividend and make the stock go higher. The same thing can happen when you buy the stock on the open market but the connection isn't as direct. Companies with good stock performance are able to attract better employees which will increase their profits which benefits the stock holder. None of this happens when you buy bitcoin or ethereum. Some crypto exchanges make up their own crypto currency and offer high interest rates on those but as we are seeing most of those are turning out to be scams.