Yes, however we are reasoning probabilistically here. We're not making absolute statements about either new or old things. We're not saying any one new thing

Yes, however we are reasoning probabilistically here. We're not making absolute statements about either new or old things. We're not saying any one new thing definitely won't last another 10 years, the same way we're not saying any one old thing will definitely last another 10 years. The whole discussion is about what things are likely to do. There's a place for formal logic in discussions of probabilistic models, but it can also confuse people. > Believing that any rocker that is new won't make it is wrong, in fact you can be certain that some will. If you were made to bet money repeatedly on whether a new rocker or an old rocker would still be a rocker in 5 years, you would end up with more money if you always picked the old rocker. This means that older rockers last relatively longer and new rockers last relatively shorter ("on average" / "by expectation" / "probabilistically"); that's literally the same statement. That the underlying mechanism might be gradual removal doesn't change this, and doesn't matter.