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Ok. But then you just proved Lindy effect is at best probabilistic, and most likely survivorship bias. Because it doesn't hold invariant to time. It's not har
by Ygg2 4y ago
Ok. But then you just proved Lindy effect is at best probabilistic, and most likely survivorship bias.
Because it doesn't hold invariant to time.
It's not hard to make a counterexample. E.g. when Windows 3.11 existed for several years and Microsoft published Windows 95.
If we were to travel back then and use Lindy effect we would get wrong predictions.
Because it's such a simple heuristic it only demonstrates one way effect.
- thaumasiotes 4y ago> But then you just proved Lindy effect is at best probabilistic Obviously? Look at the statement of the Lindy effect: > The Lindy effect proposes, simplified, that the longer something has been around, the longer it will probably stay around still. What do you think the word "probably" means?