3 ms·
I don't see any issue, as long as you consider the time until the system crashes or stops for any other reason rather than the time until the system stops speci
by hddqsb 4y ago
I don't see any issue, as long as you consider the time until the system crashes or stops for any other reason rather than the time until the system stops specifically due to a crash.
And note that the Lindy effect is about the expected value (mean). The statement "probably run another T hours without incident" could be interpreted as relating to the median, which is actually a little less than the mean. So the statement should either be "the expected value of the number of hours until the system stops is T", or "the probability of the system running for at least another T hours is a little less than 50%".
- hddqsb 4y agoEdit: "A little" is inaccurate, the probability of the remaining lifetime being at least T is actually 25%[1]. And all this is assuming a "Lindy proportion" of 1 (which seems reasonable) and that no other information is known. [1] Calculation: Lindy proportion 1 corresponds to a Pareto distribution with probability distribution function `a / x^(a+1)` where a = 2 and the range of x is [1, ∞). The cumulative distribution function is `1 - 1/x^a`. So the probability of the remaining lifetime being less than or equal to the observed lifetime is CDF(2) = 0.75.