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Toyota kind of implies otherwise. Besides my impression is that Tesla doesn't really have manufacturing at scale yet. Aren't they still having trouble fulfillin

Toyota kind of implies otherwise. Besides my impression is that Tesla doesn't really have manufacturing at scale yet. Aren't they still having trouble fulfilling orders?

a4isms 4y ago
So Musk is picking fewer than two? Fair.
judge2020 4y ago
Toyota is the king of doing all 3, it's a shame US automakers underestimated the Japanese. In terms of lemons, Toyota only has one every ~11.6 Million cars, while the lowest performer is Fiat with one lemon every 76k (Jeep, which is the same company as Fiat, at 131k). This publication didn't track Tesla, as the Model 3 started mass production 2 years after this article. https://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2016/01/toyota-tops-fiat-flops-in-autoguide-s-1st-annual-lemon-list.html https://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2016/01/toyota-tops-fiat...
- CamperBob2 4y ago
  Those numbers are far too low, probably by two orders of magnitude or more. To get a feel for the actual statistics, a very useful trick I came across on a Porsche forum is to look up the model on cargurus.com. E.g.: https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?zip=90210&showNegotiable=true&sortDir=ASC&sourceContext=untrackedWithinSite_false_0&distance=50000&sortType=DEAL_SCORE&entitySelectingHelper.selectedEntity=d2974 https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFi... Note the number of listings (401 nationwide listings for the Taycan at the moment) shown in the 'Filter Results' area. Scroll down to 'Vehicle History' and note the availability of the option to 'Hide vehicles with Lemon History Reported.' Next to that is a number reflecting how many used cars of a given make/model have a lemon title out of the set of cars currently for sale. With a 25:401 ratio, it can be inferred that almost 6% of used Taycans on the market were bought back by Porsche at some point.
  - kimixa 4y ago
    I feel that may be biased, as presumably every lemon buyback from Porsche gets resold on the second hand market, but clearly not all cars from a 2020 model will have resold yet. I'd even go as far to say that the majority of a 1-2 year old car model will still be with the original purchaser.
    - CamperBob2 4y ago
      It's biased, but it's also proof that the numbers are far from the six-nines values the GP was referring to. They sell about 10K Taycans a year in North America, so there are likely around 20K on the road. I guess all that can be said with any certainty is that the proportion of lemons could be as bad as 6% or as good as 0.1% (if the ones for sale on Carguru at the moment happen to include all of the lemons ever produced.)

Toyota kind of implies otherwise. Besides my impression is that Tesla doesn't really have manufacturing at scale yet. Aren't they still having trouble fulfilling orders?

a4isms 4y ago

So Musk is picking fewer than two? Fair.

judge2020 4y ago

Toyota is the king of doing all 3, it's a shame US automakers underestimated the Japanese. In terms of lemons, Toyota only has one every ~11.6 Million cars, while the lowest performer is Fiat with one lemon every 76k (Jeep, which is the same company as Fiat, at 131k). This publication didn't track Tesla, as the Model 3 started mass production 2 years after this article. https://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2016/01/toyota-tops-fiat-flops-in-autoguide-s-1st-annual-lemon-list.html https://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2016/01/toyota-tops-fiat...

CamperBob2 4y ago
Those numbers are far too low, probably by two orders of magnitude or more. To get a feel for the actual statistics, a very useful trick I came across on a Porsche forum is to look up the model on cargurus.com. E.g.: https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?zip=90210&showNegotiable=true&sortDir=ASC&sourceContext=untrackedWithinSite_false_0&distance=50000&sortType=DEAL_SCORE&entitySelectingHelper.selectedEntity=d2974 https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFi... Note the number of listings (401 nationwide listings for the Taycan at the moment) shown in the 'Filter Results' area. Scroll down to 'Vehicle History' and note the availability of the option to 'Hide vehicles with Lemon History Reported.' Next to that is a number reflecting how many used cars of a given make/model have a lemon title out of the set of cars currently for sale. With a 25:401 ratio, it can be inferred that almost 6% of used Taycans on the market were bought back by Porsche at some point.
- kimixa 4y ago
  I feel that may be biased, as presumably every lemon buyback from Porsche gets resold on the second hand market, but clearly not all cars from a 2020 model will have resold yet. I'd even go as far to say that the majority of a 1-2 year old car model will still be with the original purchaser.
  - CamperBob2 4y ago
    It's biased, but it's also proof that the numbers are far from the six-nines values the GP was referring to. They sell about 10K Taycans a year in North America, so there are likely around 20K on the road. I guess all that can be said with any certainty is that the proportion of lemons could be as bad as 6% or as good as 0.1% (if the ones for sale on Carguru at the moment happen to include all of the lemons ever produced.)