That's not right. The Lindy argument holds in that case as well, it's just a different version of the doomsday argument. The basis for this kind of reasoning i

That's not right. The Lindy argument holds in that case as well, it's just a different version of the doomsday argument. The basis for this kind of reasoning is essentially that, if you can assume that you are an 'average user' (and you don't have reason to believe you're especially late or early), the chance that your prediction about the longevity of the project is correct is most likely to be true if you 1/3 - 3x[1] the lifespan of the project currently. That is because if say, you predicted VsCode existed a hundred times longer than it currently did, that prediction is only true if you are indeed among the first 1%. 99% of VsCode users making that prediction will be wrong. [1]https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2VfpAbtj-yOq5gHhYIdgrAIdBuw=/1400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16680423/Doomsday1.png https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2VfpAbtj-yOq5gHhYIdgrAIdBuw=...