The Lindy effect is a predictive tool. Whether something is good or not is much more complicated. For one thing, switching GUI tools has almost no cost, if th

The Lindy effect is a predictive tool. Whether something is good or not is much more complicated. For one thing, switching GUI tools has almost no cost, if that tool doesn't have a significant amount of non-ephemeral user content. It may be different for people with a strong muscle memory, but I can switch calculators or dictionary apps at any time. Basic GUI apps aren't skills you learn, they're things you get vaguely familiar with, the discoverable UIs guide you even if you don't know what you're doing. The learning time is minutes to days at most. If I have to learn a new app in 3 years, that's fine. It won't take me much more effort than it probably would to maintain the config for enough Vim plugins to get it to act somewhat like I want it to. I could probably even switch away from something as big as LibreOffice without trouble, if they used the same file formats and actually gave a reason I might want to switch. Plus, Android itself is still new, and for most things, Mobile is what really matters to me. Note taking is worthless if I can't access or write down the notes when I think of them or want to check them. Perhaps if I was doing more advanced programming, more of my notes would be taken at a keyboard? These simple old tools seem really use case specific. Like, speed of text editing is less critical if most of what you do is interact with modern frameworks, where things might change too fast and the projects might be too big to memorize, and you're relying much more on IDE features to help you, and spending 2x as much time researching as actually coding.