3 ms·
If you sampled from a pool of now defunct software projects, or all software projects that were made in some year, you could make some estimate of the survival
by killjoywashere 4y ago
If you sampled from a pool of now defunct software projects, or all software projects that were made in some year, you could make some estimate of the survival probability of software projects that are current. But if you can't draw an Kaplan-Meier curve, it's unclear to me how you would assert there exists a survival function that could be inverted.
- pmcp 4y agoI’m talking out of ignorance her, so please educate me: if you take into account the black swan theory both kaplan meier and Lindy effect can’t say anything about anything, no?
- killjoywashere 4y agoThe point of the black swan is you can't model it. You can't predict COVID-19. You can't predict Russia renouncing it's debt, leading to the collapse of LTCM. You can't predict Hurricane Katrina hitting just so as to push feet of water into Lake Pontchartrain. You can't predict the the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. You can know everything there is to know about epidemics, finance, weather, and seismology, and you still can't predict those events. So don't. Do you best to build robust systems, looks for places with excessive efficiencies, and plan mitigation strategies in advance.