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Here's a comment I made a few days ago here on HN about a blog post, it may be relevant: ————— The author is relating second-hand information. That’s useful,
by a4isms 4y ago
Here's a comment I made a few days ago here on HN about a blog post, it may be relevant:
—————
The author is relating second-hand information. That’s useful, it’s good to have people who have a skill of curating business advice and pointing us in good directions. But my first-hand advice is to recognize the difference between:
Alice: “I’m making five figures a month for five hours a week reselling five products.”
And Bob: “People like Alice make as much as five figures a month for five hours a week reselling five products.”
In the first case, Alice has direct experience with success. In the second case, the incentives are such that Bob is someone whose experience and expertise is in selecting stories that have verisimilitude, that is, things that sound true.
And what makes something sound true? Quite often, something we want to be true sounds true even if it isn’t, and something we don’t want to be true doesn’t sound true, even if it is.
Bob nearly always sounds more authoritative than Alice, because Bob’s business is sounding authoritative, whereas Alice’s business is being authoritative. Why doesn’t Alice always sound authoritative? Because she speaks the truth whether it appeals to our biases or opposes them, whether we want her truth to be true or not.
Bob, on the other hand, is an authority on what people want to hear. Bob is just as expert in Bob’s business as Alice is in hers. Bob uses metrics and data to write headlines and even choose the most compelling adjectives to use in his posts. Bob sounds authoritative to people lacking expertise in whatever Bob is talking about.
The Bobs of this world can (but don’t always) become “a poor man’s idea of a rich man, and a failure’s idea of a success,” because their customers are people early in their lives and careers.
So what to do when a Bob suggests something is true? Well, we shouldn’t dismiss it. But let’s think of it the way we’d think of Bob referring a candidate for a job in our businesses.
We might fast-track them into an interview, but we’d still interview the candidate. And so it must be with business advice. Bob pointing us to an idea is Bob referring an idea to us.
Our job is to take Bob’s referral and still validate the idea by seeking original, authoritative expertise. Bob’s value is suggesting ideas to think about, not teaching us about business.
p.s. I say all of the above as an authority on the subject: I’m a Bob.
———
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31715485 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31715485
- bombcar 4y agoThe other huge hidden danger is the Bobs of the world can generalize, intentionally or accidentally, a situation and make it seem that anyone can be an Alice; but it may be (and Alice may openly admit if you ask) that there's only room for one Alice, and her mechanism simply will not work for anyone else. The biggest example of this is in things that involve large amounts of luck (or are even totally luck-driven); think gambling or stock market picks or startups - the "winners" have a hard time distinguishing what they did from the luck involved, and often give too little to luck. If the Bobs are not drawing out the luck side of things but instead amplifying the apparent skills, it can be a huge disservice, but, hey, it's usually more popular than saying "it's luck".
- notahacker 4y agoThe flip side of that is: the Bobs of this world sometimes have seen enough to (i) not be fooled by survivorship bias into believing their way is the best way and (ii) spot patterns in what many Alices do and many people trying to be like Alices don't And there are a lot of fake Alices. I mean, I'm bombarded with ads from people who apparently spend five hours a week making five figures per month... and then apparently spend the rest of their life promoting their ability to offer one on one "coaching" sessions to be just like them at rates which don't really make much sense if they're making $x,xxx per hour on their real gig. Which links back to the original post: the people who do make five figures per month for five hours a week reselling stuff tend to not talk about it. Or at least not nearly as much as the people cosplaying that lifestyle or the people whose interest in such businesses is purely academic.